***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.1 17.0 0.4 67.1 61.6 14.5 14.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.3 17.0 0.7 70.0 66.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.8 17.2 0.5 65.8 62.3 15.8 16.1 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.7 12.1 14.6 0.4 62.9 61.4 10.7 11.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.7 14.9 0.4 63.1 61.6 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.7 12.6 0.5 69.8 66.0 11.8 12.2 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 15.1 15.1 17.1 0.6 66.4 64.3 14.3 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 7.7 7.7 12.6 0.5 71.1 67.2 6.8 7.1 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.6 15.0 0.4 63.7 62.1 14.0 14.1 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.5 13.5 0.5 67.7 64.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.5 14.4 0.4 66.4 63.3 13.7 14.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.7 13.4 0.5 68.7 64.9 11.5 12.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.0 13.0 0.4 66.8 63.1 13.2 13.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.4 15.2 0.7 75.0 69.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.5 16.0 0.3 55.9 58.6 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 14.5 15.1 13.8 0.4 66.6 63.1 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.7 17.0 0.8 74.0 69.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.4 13.4 13.0 0.5 70.9 66.5 12.3 12.9 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.0 17.0 0.6 70.9 66.4 14.0 14.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 9.0 9.2 10.8 0.6 72.1 68.7 8.2 8.7 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.6 16.4 0.4 61.6 60.7 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.8 17.0 0.8 75.4 69.9 13.7 14.1 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 0.7 75.9 67.5 13.6 14.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.6 14.8 15.0 0.5 69.1 65.6 14.0 14.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.5 15.7 0.4 61.7 60.3 13.9 14.1 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.8 12.7 0.6 77.2 69.1 12.8 13.1 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.4 16.3 0.4 63.5 61.1 13.5 14.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.6 15.0 0.4 60.0 60.9 12.7 13.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.7 12.3 0.6 72.2 67.8 10.6 11.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.2 17.1 0.6 67.1 64.3 14.2 14.8 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------