***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.6 17.3 0.1 51.6 49.3 15.1 15.6 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.9 17.4 0.3 57.3 53.2 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.9 17.2 17.6 0.1 51.7 49.4 16.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 10.7 12.2 14.8 -0.2 45.5 46.6 11.3 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 12.9 13.9 14.8 -0.2 42.2 45.5 13.3 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 11.7 12.5 12.9 -0.1 43.7 48.0 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 17.6 0.4 58.7 53.7 14.5 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.7 7.8 12.8 -0.1 46.8 47.8 7.2 7.9 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 13.9 14.5 15.0 -0.2 38.8 44.7 14.2 15.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 13.7 14.7 13.6 -0.2 41.2 45.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 13.6 14.7 14.4 -0.2 42.5 46.7 14.0 15.0 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 11.3 12.4 13.6 -0.1 47.1 47.6 12.1 12.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 12.8 13.6 12.7 -0.4 36.3 44.0 13.2 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.4 15.5 15.3 0.2 50.8 50.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.9 16.1 -0.3 42.2 45.0 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 13.9 15.0 13.7 -0.3 38.9 45.4 14.2 15.3 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.4 17.4 0.4 59.4 55.0 14.8 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 13.1 13.1 -0.1 43.0 46.7 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.8 17.3 0.3 55.6 52.5 14.4 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.1 8.9 10.6 -0.1 42.9 47.0 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.9 15.0 16.5 -0.1 45.0 46.0 14.0 15.2 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.1 17.2 0.4 58.7 53.8 13.6 14.7 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.0 17.2 0.3 53.7 52.3 13.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.7 15.0 15.0 0.0 46.7 48.2 14.1 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 13.8 14.8 15.7 -0.1 46.9 47.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 12.8 14.2 12.7 -0.1 48.4 47.0 13.1 14.2 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 13.8 15.4 16.5 0.0 51.8 48.6 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 12.5 13.5 15.1 -0.3 41.1 45.3 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.8 11.6 12.4 -0.1 44.0 48.1 11.4 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.2 17.5 0.3 56.1 52.2 14.3 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------