***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.0 15.7 17.4 0.8 70.4 60.2 14.1 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.2 17.4 0.9 71.1 61.9 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.1 17.4 17.6 0.7 70.7 60.6 14.9 16.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.6 14.9 0.6 66.1 58.9 9.6 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.8 15.0 0.7 69.9 60.1 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.1 13.1 0.9 75.8 65.4 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.8 17.5 0.8 68.3 60.8 13.7 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 8.1 8.4 13.1 1.0 75.2 66.0 6.3 7.4 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.8 15.2 0.7 71.4 60.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.4 13.9 0.8 72.8 63.5 13.1 14.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.0 15.0 14.5 0.8 71.2 62.7 13.1 14.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 0.9 72.8 64.3 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.1 13.1 0.8 72.9 63.2 12.7 13.7 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.9 15.9 15.4 0.8 72.3 62.3 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.1 16.3 0.6 66.8 59.4 14.8 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.2 14.0 0.8 70.9 62.7 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.4 17.4 0.9 72.0 62.3 14.3 14.7 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.0 13.3 0.8 70.7 63.7 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.6 16.1 17.4 0.9 72.8 61.9 13.7 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 9.6 10.0 11.0 1.0 75.8 66.4 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.3 16.6 0.7 70.1 60.5 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.5 17.2 0.9 72.1 61.9 13.3 14.0 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.2 17.2 0.8 73.9 62.0 12.8 13.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.5 15.2 0.7 69.7 61.9 13.6 14.5 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.9 14.9 15.8 0.7 70.6 59.7 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 13.7 14.0 13.1 1.0 74.4 66.3 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.9 16.6 0.7 69.3 60.0 13.3 13.7 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.3 15.3 0.6 67.2 60.0 12.4 13.2 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.8 12.7 0.9 74.9 64.8 9.8 11.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.8 15.8 17.5 0.8 70.8 61.0 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------