***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.9 17.8 1.3 77.0 69.7 13.8 14.3 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.5 16.3 17.7 1.5 80.8 71.7 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.8 17.4 18.0 1.3 77.7 70.3 14.6 15.7 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.4 13.3 15.5 1.3 79.2 70.8 9.3 10.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.4 15.9 1.3 80.2 71.7 11.9 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 13.1 13.9 13.5 1.4 83.9 73.3 10.8 11.7 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.7 17.8 1.4 75.7 70.0 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.9 13.5 1.4 82.5 73.6 5.2 6.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.3 16.0 1.2 76.8 71.6 13.1 13.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.6 15.0 14.4 1.3 79.5 72.7 13.0 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.2 15.4 1.2 80.1 72.2 13.0 13.7 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.7 14.4 1.4 82.0 72.4 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.6 14.1 1.2 80.1 72.3 12.5 13.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.7 16.0 1.4 83.4 73.8 13.5 14.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.4 17.0 1.1 79.3 69.3 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 15.3 16.0 14.9 1.3 80.6 72.2 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 15.7 16.2 17.6 1.6 80.8 73.4 13.3 14.8 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.5 13.9 1.4 81.2 72.8 11.7 12.5 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.9 17.7 1.4 80.4 71.7 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.2 10.1 11.7 1.4 83.0 73.5 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.5 17.3 1.2 79.1 70.3 13.1 13.5 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 14.8 15.5 17.7 1.5 81.8 73.8 12.6 13.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.3 17.7 1.4 82.2 72.8 12.7 13.7 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 14.9 15.4 15.9 1.3 81.4 72.3 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.4 15.0 16.7 1.3 79.5 70.5 12.7 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 14.0 14.8 13.9 1.6 85.5 75.3 11.7 12.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.5 15.0 17.3 1.3 78.9 70.0 12.2 13.7 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.7 16.0 1.3 81.1 71.5 12.0 12.7 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.9 13.1 1.3 82.4 73.2 9.3 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.5 16.0 17.9 1.3 77.9 70.2 12.9 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------