***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.1 14.2 15.5 -0.3 41.9 43.1 13.9 14.9 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 14.4 14.2 15.6 0.0 48.5 49.3 13.2 14.2 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 16.5 16.1 15.8 -0.2 44.7 45.8 14.7 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.4 10.9 13.0 -0.1 48.6 47.5 9.8 11.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 13.2 12.7 13.7 -0.2 43.7 45.7 12.3 13.0 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 11.8 11.6 10.8 -0.1 49.2 48.5 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 15.0 14.8 15.5 -0.2 49.7 47.1 13.4 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 6.4 6.2 11.1 -0.1 49.8 48.7 5.5 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 14.0 13.8 13.9 -0.2 46.4 47.4 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 13.5 13.4 12.2 -0.1 46.9 47.4 12.9 13.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 13.5 13.3 13.4 -0.2 46.0 47.3 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.6 12.0 -0.2 47.0 46.7 10.7 11.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.3 12.1 -0.1 49.9 48.6 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.9 14.2 0.3 55.0 56.3 13.4 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.3 14.8 -0.3 40.1 42.3 14.0 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 14.2 14.0 12.8 -0.2 47.7 47.7 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 15.4 15.3 15.7 0.2 51.8 52.9 13.5 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 12.6 12.5 11.8 0.0 48.9 49.9 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 15.0 14.9 15.6 0.0 49.2 50.0 13.4 14.9 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 8.3 8.2 9.8 0.1 52.3 52.4 7.5 8.2 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 14.2 13.8 15.1 -0.3 43.9 44.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 14.2 14.4 16.0 0.4 57.9 58.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 14.3 14.3 15.6 0.1 52.2 53.0 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 14.0 13.6 14.0 0.0 49.2 50.8 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.5 13.7 14.6 -0.4 40.7 41.1 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 12.5 12.4 11.2 -0.1 52.6 50.5 12.1 12.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 13.8 15.0 -0.4 40.8 42.2 13.4 14.0 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.1 12.8 13.5 -0.2 44.8 45.8 11.9 12.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 10.8 10.6 11.0 0.0 51.3 50.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 15.3 15.0 15.7 -0.1 47.5 47.4 13.6 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------