***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 75.4 71.5 64.3 101.0 57.3 52.1 60.2 69.6 83.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 79.6 78.5 53.7 94.9 53.8 49.0 52.0 67.6 88.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 93.0 94.5 64.5 104.4 60.2 52.7 68.2 85.5 103.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 81.3 70.8 64.2 103.8 55.2 51.6 53.4 68.7 90.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 47.9 64.8 64.0 105.9 57.2 52.1 46.3 61.4 80.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 70.8 67.2 71.9 101.3 54.5 49.3 42.8 65.7 74.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 72.0 69.8 54.8 95.6 55.0 49.8 56.4 66.3 78.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 102.4 84.8 70.3 100.0 53.9 49.4 69.7 81.8 122.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 48.4 72.2 63.0 96.7 52.5 47.6 52.0 66.7 89.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 56.6 83.2 72.0 97.1 51.8 47.6 63.0 79.1 102.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 48.7 76.6 64.7 107.5 57.8 52.3 44.1 70.6 81.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 38.5 57.2 61.8 103.3 56.1 50.8 45.5 54.8 67.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 57.2 55.5 68.8 110.2 58.9 54.4 36.2 47.8 56.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 106.2 107.2 75.6 97.8 54.3 48.9 68.8 97.8 122.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 60.0 57.8 54.9 103.2 59.0 51.5 33.5 53.9 64.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 60.9 57.6 63.8 107.3 57.2 52.7 28.3 53.7 69.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 50.3 73.5 51.5 93.4 51.1 48.5 44.1 72.6 85.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 56.9 85.9 77.9 97.1 52.8 48.0 53.6 81.8 103.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 83.2 82.0 55.7 96.6 55.9 49.2 55.2 75.3 87.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 51.0 79.8 77.1 99.6 55.6 49.2 56.5 63.3 88.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 52.0 71.9 62.7 99.1 55.5 49.8 47.9 68.3 88.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 49.9 67.4 50.3 88.6 50.2 45.3 49.4 67.3 85.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 74.2 69.2 59.6 99.1 55.3 49.8 51.2 66.6 92.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 71.5 106.0 72.2 100.8 56.3 50.3 78.0 86.7 117.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 78.8 78.6 71.4 104.7 58.4 53.9 55.1 73.0 84.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 62.0 63.7 57.9 105.8 57.8 53.2 40.5 55.9 73.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 97.9 95.4 69.8 102.1 57.5 52.8 62.2 94.3 98.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 55.4 56.7 60.1 102.2 55.6 50.9 38.1 49.3 62.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 73.5 109.2 79.9 99.3 54.3 49.8 71.7 101.1 126.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 79.9 79.7 58.0 99.2 57.9 51.2 69.2 74.4 87.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------