***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 8.6 14.4 11.7 81.2 57.5 43.8 9.1 14.1 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 7.5 14.8 9.7 71.6 57.7 42.5 8.3 13.8 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 8.4 16.3 11.6 84.6 57.2 43.8 7.9 13.2 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.3 12.2 89.3 60.7 46.8 5.9 9.9 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.2 14.2 12.9 102.0 64.1 47.8 3.8 6.4 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.3 14.6 98.6 60.3 46.0 4.1 5.7 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.5 9.6 10.2 73.7 57.3 42.9 5.8 8.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.7 34.1 16.0 112.0 65.0 50.3 10.1 18.3 36.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.5 13.0 13.0 93.9 62.8 44.2 4.1 8.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.8 14.4 15.7 100.2 61.4 46.9 5.0 10.1 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.1 14.9 13.6 114.9 66.7 50.4 2.9 7.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.3 16.4 14.2 120.9 68.9 52.1 4.4 12.3 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.0 10.0 14.5 114.7 66.5 50.3 2.6 6.9 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.7 20.2 16.8 95.2 58.7 46.0 8.4 15.5 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.1 7.3 9.8 83.3 60.3 44.0 0.1 2.5 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 1.9 8.4 13.6 109.5 65.8 49.2 1.2 4.2 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.6 10.1 75.7 58.1 44.5 4.8 10.8 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.1 20.1 18.2 104.3 61.3 47.8 11.0 15.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.1 10.5 77.0 58.3 43.5 7.2 10.3 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.4 22.0 19.6 113.8 65.5 50.1 8.9 17.5 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.1 11.5 12.4 90.3 60.5 43.5 7.0 9.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.4 14.5 10.4 74.8 57.4 43.9 8.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.8 12.1 87.3 58.1 45.0 7.2 9.7 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 12.1 21.5 15.5 98.2 58.1 46.1 9.6 19.6 33.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.7 13.0 13.6 87.0 57.4 44.3 7.3 10.8 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.0 17.0 12.3 125.9 72.6 52.2 3.1 6.2 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.7 17.3 13.5 85.7 57.9 44.7 7.3 14.1 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.0 6.1 11.6 88.9 61.7 46.8 2.0 4.6 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.1 25.7 18.9 107.1 62.3 48.1 12.6 22.0 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 9.6 18.9 10.5 76.5 57.8 42.9 8.9 16.7 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------