***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.4 12.6 79.0 55.1 42.3 5.4 11.0 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.6 10.8 80.6 55.5 43.6 5.6 13.4 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.3 13.2 13.6 88.0 57.5 43.2 7.1 11.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.6 12.4 83.9 58.6 41.8 4.1 5.6 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.1 13.0 86.1 57.8 41.0 2.5 10.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.5 14.2 12.0 69.4 54.7 37.5 4.4 11.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.2 9.9 72.7 52.5 41.9 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.6 13.5 14.6 91.1 56.4 41.2 2.6 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.7 13.8 82.1 57.1 40.1 3.9 9.2 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 4.3 13.6 15.7 87.3 56.6 40.3 4.0 9.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.9 8.9 12.6 94.0 59.3 40.2 2.5 7.6 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 12.7 13.1 95.5 61.0 42.8 2.0 8.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.3 13.8 91.0 63.2 44.0 2.5 7.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 18.0 17.6 88.4 58.2 44.7 6.7 13.8 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.2 9.5 10.2 81.7 59.7 40.4 1.4 4.4 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.8 11.1 12.1 86.4 61.3 40.3 3.6 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.3 11.3 9.8 74.0 54.4 39.4 3.0 8.3 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 2.4 9.6 18.2 88.2 55.4 41.0 1.6 6.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.8 11.8 11.8 85.5 57.2 45.0 3.6 9.5 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.5 17.1 89.3 54.1 42.2 5.8 11.9 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.5 15.8 12.5 77.7 54.9 40.3 1.1 10.0 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.0 12.2 11.4 83.6 58.2 42.3 4.0 8.9 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.3 13.0 86.9 56.7 44.4 9.0 12.7 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 6.5 21.6 17.0 91.4 57.8 42.9 3.1 17.4 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.7 13.1 76.4 53.8 41.2 4.8 9.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.5 17.4 11.2 87.2 63.9 44.2 4.5 10.8 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.4 12.9 13.2 77.1 53.9 42.9 5.6 12.3 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.4 10.7 77.9 58.3 40.2 1.8 6.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.6 16.8 18.3 89.3 55.6 42.0 5.9 13.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.4 11.2 11.8 84.0 56.3 44.1 6.4 9.0 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------