***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.3 17.2 12.2 68.6 51.1 39.3 2.7 16.4 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.0 22.3 11.4 68.8 53.0 38.8 7.4 20.1 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.3 21.7 12.6 68.4 50.0 39.5 8.3 21.6 35.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.1 15.1 87.5 57.7 46.1 11.1 21.4 37.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.4 14.7 11.5 65.3 47.2 37.6 5.8 18.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.4 10.8 15.5 77.4 50.2 44.1 3.1 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.5 10.9 11.3 69.7 51.5 39.8 6.1 10.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.2 14.2 11.4 61.9 42.8 38.1 10.8 17.0 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.8 18.4 10.8 60.6 43.5 37.2 10.9 21.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 11.8 19.7 11.8 61.4 44.6 37.8 12.8 23.1 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.6 11.8 11.9 61.6 44.8 36.6 8.0 12.8 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.8 6.3 11.3 66.5 45.1 41.0 3.6 6.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.6 10.2 13.7 71.2 49.5 44.6 5.0 10.2 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 12.2 22.1 14.6 67.9 47.7 37.1 12.1 22.3 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.3 18.1 15.2 95.3 63.3 50.0 2.5 12.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.9 12.9 71.7 50.2 41.8 3.5 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 5.4 8.7 10.3 63.4 47.4 39.0 3.6 9.7 17.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.4 15.7 14.1 67.1 46.9 38.3 9.2 18.3 31.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 11.9 20.7 11.7 68.7 52.6 39.3 12.2 19.2 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 13.4 13.5 66.2 42.6 37.8 8.6 15.3 31.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.4 13.2 11.4 64.7 46.7 37.1 9.4 13.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.9 9.5 10.4 60.9 46.9 38.7 7.2 9.6 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 6.7 15.8 11.7 65.3 51.0 38.3 8.1 15.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 16.9 27.6 14.3 70.6 50.4 39.4 12.3 27.0 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.0 10.5 13.5 67.5 48.3 38.4 6.7 10.9 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.8 8.3 11.1 65.9 46.7 41.4 5.1 8.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 6.2 13.2 13.0 65.8 47.8 37.9 9.3 14.3 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 19.5 20.4 14.3 87.6 58.5 46.2 6.7 15.4 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 15.3 28.7 15.9 71.8 47.0 39.7 19.6 30.0 36.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.9 19.2 11.9 70.0 52.2 40.1 6.7 18.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------