***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 28.9 36.2 27.8 179.2 82.5 73.8 7.5 13.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 23.4 28.0 21.7 168.1 80.0 70.6 9.6 17.1 23.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 30.3 38.8 26.7 188.4 83.3 73.4 5.9 16.6 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 25.0 34.5 24.5 153.1 75.8 66.7 5.1 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 27.0 36.4 26.5 178.1 83.0 71.6 4.8 10.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 23.4 27.7 29.8 157.2 78.1 70.2 10.5 15.4 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 22.5 28.2 23.4 171.7 80.2 70.7 9.2 12.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 25.1 39.9 28.2 130.8 71.2 62.8 11.3 20.1 34.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 25.5 32.9 25.5 151.0 78.0 67.7 7.6 14.4 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 21.1 31.8 28.8 136.5 73.5 64.7 4.4 18.1 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 26.1 37.1 26.6 173.9 80.8 71.1 6.1 11.8 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.7 22.0 23.2 135.0 71.5 63.0 3.5 13.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 22.3 32.2 26.9 174.3 83.0 71.1 7.0 9.7 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 33.3 41.5 26.6 146.2 77.1 67.6 11.4 18.5 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 18.8 21.5 19.8 150.6 75.9 64.5 3.0 10.6 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 22.5 36.4 25.1 170.0 81.7 70.5 4.5 8.7 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 26.2 32.0 21.3 173.1 79.6 70.9 5.5 16.1 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 16.8 25.0 27.4 129.1 70.4 62.3 9.0 15.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 22.7 27.1 21.7 165.2 79.6 70.1 6.9 15.5 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.0 30.3 27.0 129.4 71.9 62.0 6.2 14.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 24.9 34.3 26.4 167.3 79.7 70.9 8.5 13.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 25.3 30.3 18.0 149.1 75.0 65.5 9.7 16.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 21.3 25.9 22.9 169.6 80.5 71.1 7.7 14.6 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 31.3 38.7 25.5 149.6 75.7 66.7 11.2 18.9 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 28.6 51.5 31.3 201.4 87.4 76.1 4.4 12.5 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 21.8 28.1 23.4 153.0 79.6 69.1 2.3 10.9 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 32.3 45.1 30.1 191.7 85.5 74.9 6.7 19.4 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 14.7 16.0 23.5 150.1 74.8 65.8 1.7 8.4 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 22.7 31.0 26.7 132.5 72.4 63.2 9.3 19.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 22.8 26.0 23.8 173.9 80.5 71.0 13.4 18.3 22.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------