***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 27.9 28.2 28.1 1.5 78.9 72.7 25.8 26.7 27.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 27.3 28.0 28.7 2.1 82.0 76.9 26.0 26.5 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 27.5 27.7 28.1 1.4 77.3 70.4 25.9 26.4 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 20.4 20.6 25.2 1.0 71.8 67.6 18.9 19.6 20.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 27.9 27.8 25.7 0.8 68.0 63.7 26.0 27.0 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.9 26.2 22.8 0.4 58.8 57.3 24.9 25.6 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 27.0 27.4 28.5 1.9 79.8 75.8 25.7 26.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.6 23.2 0.4 60.1 57.7 14.7 15.2 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 27.4 27.2 26.3 1.0 72.5 66.2 25.6 26.7 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.5 27.0 24.3 0.6 64.9 61.1 25.5 26.2 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 27.7 27.5 25.5 0.8 66.7 63.3 25.8 26.6 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 26.1 26.5 24.5 0.5 62.7 59.5 25.1 25.9 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 27.2 27.4 24.2 0.3 56.6 55.8 26.0 27.0 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 27.0 26.7 25.6 0.7 65.1 61.8 25.4 26.4 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 28.3 28.6 27.1 1.4 78.3 72.6 26.8 27.4 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.1 24.9 0.6 63.2 61.2 26.4 27.6 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 26.7 27.4 28.5 2.1 82.2 77.7 25.5 26.0 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.2 23.4 0.4 60.5 57.8 24.8 26.0 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 26.9 27.4 28.6 2.0 81.3 76.4 25.5 25.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 21.8 21.7 20.8 0.0 52.1 51.7 20.7 21.6 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 27.5 27.6 27.2 0.9 72.0 65.3 25.6 26.5 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 26.9 27.3 28.0 1.8 80.9 75.1 25.9 26.4 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 27.5 28.1 28.2 1.8 79.5 74.5 25.7 26.3 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 26.9 26.6 25.6 0.7 67.6 62.3 24.9 26.0 26.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 27.4 27.6 26.1 1.0 71.9 66.7 25.7 26.5 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.0 23.9 0.6 63.8 60.2 26.0 26.5 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 27.0 27.2 27.1 1.3 76.3 70.6 25.5 26.1 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.8 25.8 1.0 71.6 67.7 26.9 27.3 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.4 22.4 0.2 56.7 54.7 20.3 21.2 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 27.1 27.7 28.5 1.8 80.9 74.8 25.8 26.1 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------