***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 29.6 29.3 28.4 1.0 63.3 60.2 27.0 28.5 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 28.9 29.4 28.9 1.6 70.7 64.9 26.7 27.1 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 29.0 28.7 28.6 1.1 62.6 60.1 26.8 27.1 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 22.2 21.6 26.2 0.7 61.3 57.9 19.3 20.7 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 26.4 28.6 26.3 0.5 58.0 55.7 27.0 28.0 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 27.3 26.8 23.6 0.1 53.5 53.5 25.8 26.6 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 28.7 29.2 28.7 1.4 69.5 63.7 26.7 27.3 28.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.9 24.2 0.1 55.4 52.9 14.7 16.5 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.7 28.5 26.6 0.6 57.9 56.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.9 25.0 0.4 56.1 54.4 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.2 26.0 0.5 58.3 55.9 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.4 25.4 0.2 56.6 53.8 25.4 27.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.9 24.4 -0.1 50.5 51.4 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.7 25.9 0.5 55.1 55.1 26.5 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 30.2 29.6 27.5 1.0 65.5 60.7 27.6 28.0 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.8 25.5 0.4 56.9 55.0 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 28.4 28.5 28.7 1.7 71.2 65.4 26.3 26.7 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.0 24.2 0.1 53.4 52.4 25.4 26.9 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.6 28.9 1.6 69.8 64.5 26.5 26.9 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 23.1 22.8 21.4 -0.2 50.9 49.6 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 26.2 28.0 27.5 0.6 57.1 56.4 26.5 27.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 28.7 28.6 28.4 1.5 69.7 64.4 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.8 28.6 28.6 1.4 66.1 62.6 26.6 27.2 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.4 26.0 0.5 55.7 55.1 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 26.3 28.2 26.4 0.6 57.9 56.6 26.4 27.5 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.6 25.2 0.5 57.5 57.2 26.7 27.3 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 28.6 28.2 27.4 0.9 61.0 58.8 26.3 27.1 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 30.2 29.8 26.6 0.8 62.2 58.4 27.9 28.7 29.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.1 22.7 23.0 -0.1 51.3 50.7 20.4 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 28.9 28.9 28.7 1.4 67.8 62.9 26.7 27.3 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------