***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 28.6 29.5 28.9 2.6 81.2 73.7 24.7 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 28.4 29.6 29.7 3.4 86.7 77.2 24.2 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 27.8 28.9 29.0 2.5 80.1 72.0 24.6 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 20.8 21.5 25.7 1.9 75.5 68.4 17.7 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 27.9 28.6 26.4 1.8 73.2 66.8 25.0 26.0 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.1 23.3 1.0 63.4 60.2 24.1 25.6 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 28.1 29.1 29.5 3.2 83.9 76.6 24.1 25.6 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.2 16.0 23.9 1.3 67.3 62.3 13.1 14.7 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 27.5 28.5 27.2 2.0 75.8 69.0 24.4 25.3 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 27.1 27.1 25.1 1.6 70.6 64.9 24.7 25.3 26.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 27.7 28.0 26.3 1.7 70.8 65.7 25.0 25.9 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 26.6 26.4 25.0 1.3 69.0 63.1 24.3 25.4 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.2 25.0 1.1 65.1 60.3 25.4 26.5 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 26.8 28.0 26.6 1.8 72.1 66.4 23.7 24.7 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.5 27.8 2.1 78.8 71.1 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 28.7 28.0 25.6 1.4 68.9 63.5 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 27.8 28.7 29.6 3.5 87.7 78.5 23.7 24.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 25.5 26.3 24.2 1.4 67.7 63.5 23.7 25.1 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 27.4 29.0 29.6 3.3 86.3 76.5 23.8 24.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.6 21.6 1.0 64.7 60.2 19.4 21.2 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 27.7 28.6 28.1 2.0 76.1 68.7 24.7 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 27.7 29.6 29.0 3.1 85.8 76.1 23.9 25.3 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 27.9 29.3 29.2 3.1 84.6 75.1 24.1 25.4 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 26.6 28.0 26.6 1.8 72.7 66.7 24.0 24.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 27.9 28.6 27.0 2.1 76.4 69.5 25.1 26.2 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.1 24.3 1.2 66.2 61.8 25.1 26.3 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 27.5 28.3 28.0 2.4 79.5 72.6 24.1 25.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.5 26.3 1.8 74.3 67.5 25.8 27.1 27.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 20.6 21.7 23.2 1.3 66.4 62.4 19.4 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 27.8 29.3 29.5 3.1 84.0 75.4 24.0 25.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------