***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 25.7 25.7 -0.1 48.1 47.4 25.3 25.7 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.2 25.8 26.3 0.2 52.8 52.1 25.1 25.6 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.5 25.5 25.4 -0.6 42.2 43.2 25.1 25.8 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.6 17.9 21.8 -0.7 39.3 40.5 17.2 19.0 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 24.9 25.5 22.8 -1.1 34.4 36.1 25.3 26.9 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 23.5 23.4 19.8 -1.3 31.8 32.8 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 25.8 25.2 26.2 0.1 50.3 50.9 24.4 25.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 12.7 12.9 20.1 -1.5 27.2 30.6 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 24.2 25.4 23.9 -0.9 36.3 38.6 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 24.0 24.5 21.4 -1.3 30.5 33.5 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.7 25.3 23.0 -1.2 33.2 35.3 25.3 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 23.5 23.6 21.3 -1.3 30.4 33.4 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 24.9 24.9 22.1 -1.3 29.8 33.1 25.2 26.9 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.2 23.5 -1.2 36.1 36.5 25.0 25.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 27.6 27.0 24.9 -0.2 45.9 46.4 25.4 27.2 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 25.4 26.0 22.3 -1.1 33.1 35.3 26.0 27.2 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 25.7 25.3 26.1 0.3 53.2 53.0 24.3 25.3 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 23.5 24.1 20.3 -1.6 28.1 30.7 24.2 25.1 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 25.8 25.3 26.2 0.1 52.4 51.6 24.6 25.2 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 18.8 19.0 17.9 -2.0 22.7 26.2 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 24.5 25.2 24.8 -1.0 36.1 38.4 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 26.4 25.9 25.7 -0.1 50.2 49.7 24.9 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 26.1 25.6 25.9 0.0 50.7 50.5 25.1 25.6 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.0 24.8 23.2 -1.3 33.4 34.9 24.8 25.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.7 24.0 -0.7 39.1 40.9 24.9 26.3 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 24.7 24.5 20.3 -1.5 29.6 31.1 24.6 26.0 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.7 24.9 -0.3 44.2 44.9 24.8 26.0 26.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.3 22.9 -0.6 39.5 41.1 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.7 18.6 19.5 -1.8 25.9 28.8 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.4 25.8 26.1 0.0 49.5 49.8 24.8 25.9 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------