***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.7 17.4 1.2 81.1 75.9 14.3 14.5 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 15.2 15.8 17.5 1.4 81.2 78.2 13.9 14.5 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 16.9 17.2 17.5 1.1 78.3 73.8 15.8 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.4 14.6 0.8 74.1 69.0 10.7 11.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.6 13.7 14.8 0.8 72.8 68.6 12.6 13.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.6 12.3 0.6 69.1 64.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.8 17.6 1.5 81.5 78.4 14.3 14.5 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.5 12.0 0.5 65.4 63.2 6.6 7.0 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.6 15.0 0.8 75.5 71.2 14.0 14.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 14.4 14.3 13.1 0.6 68.8 65.7 13.8 14.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.5 14.1 0.7 70.8 67.8 13.6 13.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 12.4 12.5 12.9 0.5 66.1 64.2 11.4 12.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.9 12.7 0.4 63.6 61.4 13.1 13.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.0 14.7 0.6 67.2 65.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.1 16.1 1.0 81.8 75.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 14.7 15.0 13.6 0.6 69.4 65.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 15.6 16.5 17.4 1.5 82.1 79.0 14.5 15.0 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.2 12.3 0.5 66.5 64.1 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 14.9 15.4 17.4 1.4 80.2 77.4 14.0 14.3 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.7 8.9 10.1 0.4 62.1 60.5 8.2 8.6 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.8 16.3 0.9 77.0 71.2 13.9 14.0 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 14.5 14.7 17.1 1.3 78.3 76.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 14.5 14.7 17.1 1.2 78.6 75.7 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 14.7 14.7 14.6 0.7 70.5 67.4 14.0 14.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.8 15.9 0.9 74.8 69.8 13.7 14.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 13.4 13.3 12.3 0.5 66.8 64.7 12.6 13.0 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.7 15.1 16.7 1.1 79.5 74.3 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.0 15.0 0.8 76.5 71.0 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.4 11.5 0.4 63.7 62.0 10.5 11.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 15.3 15.8 17.6 1.4 80.8 77.1 14.2 14.7 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------