***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.6 17.2 0.4 59.7 56.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.8 17.4 0.7 67.7 59.9 13.8 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.4 17.5 0.4 61.2 56.9 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 14.8 0.3 56.2 54.6 10.6 12.1 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 14.6 0.1 53.2 52.7 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.0 12.8 0.2 56.2 52.9 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 16.1 15.8 17.5 0.7 66.1 59.5 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.7 12.2 -0.1 51.4 50.2 6.7 7.6 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.8 14.8 0.1 53.2 53.1 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.4 13.1 0.0 51.1 50.9 14.1 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.7 14.0 0.1 53.5 52.7 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.5 12.9 0.0 52.0 50.8 11.7 12.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.9 12.5 -0.1 47.3 48.4 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.2 14.8 14.5 -0.1 47.9 49.6 14.6 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.4 16.3 0.4 59.0 56.6 15.4 16.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.7 13.5 0.1 51.1 51.6 13.8 14.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.5 17.3 0.7 66.8 60.2 14.5 15.4 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.9 12.3 -0.1 49.1 49.7 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.0 15.6 17.4 0.7 66.7 59.7 14.1 15.1 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.7 10.0 -0.1 48.2 48.9 8.5 8.8 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.7 16.2 0.2 53.4 53.3 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.1 17.1 0.7 65.7 59.7 13.7 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.9 17.1 0.5 62.8 58.4 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.6 14.9 14.4 0.0 51.8 51.5 14.3 14.8 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.7 15.5 0.1 52.0 52.5 13.8 14.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.0 12.5 0.2 54.4 54.0 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 13.4 15.1 16.4 0.3 56.3 55.0 13.3 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.0 15.2 0.3 56.7 55.3 12.9 13.6 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.5 11.6 -0.1 48.8 49.2 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.1 17.5 0.6 64.4 59.1 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------