***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.4 16.0 18.0 1.6 80.0 69.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 15.4 16.5 18.3 2.0 82.3 72.4 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 17.4 17.9 18.2 1.6 78.3 69.5 15.1 16.3 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 12.5 13.2 15.4 1.3 75.3 66.7 9.9 11.3 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.4 15.2 1.2 75.4 66.0 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.6 13.2 1.0 71.9 65.2 11.3 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 15.5 16.6 18.3 1.9 83.1 72.6 13.9 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 8.1 8.2 12.7 0.9 69.8 63.2 6.3 7.5 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.9 15.5 1.2 75.5 66.7 13.0 14.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.4 13.8 1.0 72.1 64.6 12.8 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.3 14.5 1.1 74.9 65.5 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.9 13.5 0.9 70.6 63.5 11.3 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.1 13.1 0.8 68.3 61.8 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.7 15.3 1.0 70.9 63.8 13.9 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.8 16.7 1.3 77.0 68.9 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.6 14.0 1.0 72.4 64.3 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.3 16.9 18.1 2.0 82.2 72.5 14.2 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 14.1 12.9 1.0 71.4 64.2 11.6 12.9 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.6 16.4 18.2 1.9 81.5 71.9 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.4 10.6 0.8 67.1 62.6 7.7 8.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.3 16.9 1.3 75.0 66.8 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.2 16.0 17.8 1.8 81.6 71.2 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.9 15.8 17.8 1.7 79.5 70.4 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.9 15.2 1.1 73.0 65.3 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.8 16.2 1.3 74.6 65.7 12.8 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.8 13.1 1.1 72.7 64.9 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.6 15.2 17.2 1.5 78.0 68.8 12.8 13.6 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.5 15.7 1.3 76.0 67.5 12.3 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.4 12.2 0.9 69.8 63.7 10.1 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.8 16.5 18.3 1.9 81.0 71.6 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------