***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.7 17.6 1.5 77.2 69.7 14.0 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 15.4 16.2 17.8 1.7 80.1 71.9 13.0 14.0 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.9 17.1 17.7 1.4 74.4 69.1 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.8 15.0 1.2 71.2 67.4 9.3 10.7 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.9 15.1 1.0 70.1 66.1 12.1 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.1 12.5 0.8 65.5 62.8 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.5 16.2 17.9 1.7 79.0 71.7 13.2 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.8 12.4 0.9 66.0 64.2 5.1 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.2 15.3 1.1 72.9 68.2 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 14.7 15.0 13.5 0.9 68.1 65.6 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.8 14.5 1.0 69.8 66.4 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.4 13.3 0.9 66.1 64.5 10.8 11.9 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.9 13.0 0.6 60.4 59.1 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.1 15.0 0.9 66.0 65.4 13.4 14.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.4 16.3 1.2 71.8 69.7 14.3 14.9 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.0 13.9 0.8 66.1 63.6 13.1 13.7 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.6 17.7 1.9 81.7 73.5 13.4 14.6 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.3 12.8 1.0 68.0 65.4 11.8 12.3 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.9 17.8 1.7 80.2 71.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.8 10.7 0.8 64.7 63.1 7.6 8.2 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 15.0 15.2 16.6 1.1 71.9 67.9 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.6 17.5 1.7 79.6 72.1 12.8 13.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 14.7 15.3 17.5 1.6 80.4 71.9 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 14.9 14.9 15.0 1.0 69.4 66.6 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.9 16.2 1.1 71.9 66.3 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.6 12.4 0.6 59.5 59.2 11.9 12.4 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.4 16.9 1.3 74.9 68.2 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.4 15.3 1.1 70.3 67.5 12.1 13.1 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.5 12.0 0.9 65.8 64.5 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.6 16.3 17.9 1.6 78.0 70.9 13.2 14.3 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------