***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.2 16.8 1.5 73.1 72.4 13.7 14.8 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 15.3 15.6 16.6 1.3 70.4 69.0 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 16.2 16.7 16.5 1.0 66.3 66.4 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 10.8 11.6 13.4 0.5 58.9 57.3 9.7 10.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 13.0 13.2 14.2 0.7 64.0 61.8 11.9 12.9 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 11.6 11.4 10.8 0.3 52.0 52.8 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.4 16.8 1.5 71.9 71.4 13.3 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.1 10.8 0.2 53.1 52.6 5.1 5.8 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 14.2 14.0 14.4 0.9 66.7 64.7 13.0 13.7 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.4 12.1 0.4 56.4 56.3 13.0 13.3 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.6 13.4 0.6 62.3 59.7 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 11.5 11.5 11.9 0.3 54.0 53.4 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.0 13.2 12.2 0.4 56.7 56.7 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 14.2 14.8 13.8 0.5 59.8 58.6 13.7 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 14.8 15.0 15.2 1.0 69.8 67.8 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 13.9 14.0 12.9 0.5 59.0 57.7 12.8 13.8 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 45 55 100 15.4 15.7 16.4 1.4 70.2 69.1 13.4 15.0 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 12.6 12.6 11.4 0.2 53.4 52.4 11.7 12.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 14.6 15.1 16.4 1.2 68.3 67.4 13.5 14.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.1 7.9 9.2 0.0 46.8 47.9 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 13.9 14.3 15.6 0.9 66.2 66.2 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 14.0 14.4 16.1 1.0 64.3 64.5 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 14.2 14.5 16.1 1.0 65.8 65.6 13.2 14.1 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 13.8 14.2 13.8 0.6 60.5 59.2 13.0 13.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 14.6 14.8 15.5 1.1 68.6 67.3 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 12.4 12.4 11.1 0.3 53.8 54.4 11.7 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.4 16.3 1.4 72.6 71.8 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 12.7 12.9 13.9 0.7 63.5 61.3 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.5 10.4 0.0 47.9 48.5 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.5 16.8 1.3 69.4 69.2 13.2 15.0 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------