***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 50.2 68.3 64.8 102.2 56.0 51.0 60.0 67.2 82.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 56.6 86.2 60.2 107.2 57.9 49.3 54.9 69.5 89.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 64.0 101.9 67.6 109.4 62.5 53.6 63.4 89.7 103.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 82.4 102.2 74.8 124.2 72.5 60.9 56.0 72.0 90.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 71.5 72.4 67.8 111.7 64.5 55.3 49.6 60.5 75.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 42.7 75.9 82.7 115.3 66.7 58.6 42.3 57.3 75.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 46.8 71.9 58.7 102.4 55.5 47.8 55.5 68.3 81.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 66.0 91.8 76.9 105.4 58.9 52.8 69.8 83.2 112.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 76.8 87.0 73.5 114.1 66.9 57.2 52.0 69.2 85.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 57.4 90.7 81.1 107.9 61.1 53.9 61.2 75.4 96.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 71.0 76.5 65.8 107.8 61.5 54.4 53.3 64.9 81.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 61.6 59.1 65.4 106.7 59.5 53.8 41.7 55.2 64.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 57.1 57.0 68.9 108.4 60.0 54.5 37.4 47.4 60.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 74.1 108.0 83.1 105.8 58.9 51.1 74.4 98.0 120.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 74.9 81.4 64.9 125.4 75.1 59.9 30.9 55.8 71.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 55.9 60.6 66.1 110.6 62.1 55.5 29.9 49.3 63.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 51.3 78.7 59.5 106.8 56.4 49.9 43.8 74.5 87.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 56.6 87.3 90.1 108.4 58.6 54.6 57.0 77.4 100.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 61.5 85.1 62.5 109.6 61.9 50.4 59.2 75.7 87.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 74.8 79.3 86.9 106.0 57.8 54.2 56.7 67.7 84.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 75.1 87.2 70.6 113.7 66.5 55.7 49.1 68.3 86.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 51.7 75.0 57.9 101.9 56.8 47.4 48.1 68.9 85.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 54.8 91.8 66.1 111.0 63.3 52.5 56.5 66.8 92.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 75.2 121.3 81.0 111.1 62.4 54.7 78.6 90.7 127.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 52.4 81.8 73.6 110.1 62.9 54.1 56.4 71.7 86.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 58.8 70.0 64.1 109.6 64.2 56.4 40.2 53.8 71.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 59.1 93.5 70.7 103.5 57.1 51.9 53.2 86.2 104.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 64.3 68.5 70.9 122.6 72.1 60.1 42.3 52.1 58.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 76.0 112.6 91.3 108.2 60.3 55.3 82.7 95.8 123.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 63.4 86.3 61.1 104.7 58.4 49.6 70.9 80.5 94.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------