***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 5.5 11.4 10.9 73.4 54.4 38.2 5.6 9.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.4 14.7 11.2 83.9 60.2 41.0 9.8 13.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.8 13.4 11.8 83.1 57.9 41.3 7.1 11.9 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.8 12.0 11.5 90.2 60.2 43.4 6.3 9.2 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.7 10.2 79.4 56.1 41.9 3.7 6.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.7 13.8 89.5 58.6 45.0 1.1 4.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.4 11.3 10.5 76.4 56.4 39.6 7.4 10.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 19.8 12.3 78.0 52.8 42.9 5.6 18.3 32.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.0 11.3 79.1 56.3 41.9 3.7 5.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.8 13.2 77.6 53.0 42.1 5.1 10.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.5 9.2 76.8 53.7 43.0 2.4 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.8 11.6 9.8 80.2 55.2 43.5 4.5 10.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.0 8.1 10.6 81.9 56.7 43.1 1.5 6.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.9 17.7 15.3 84.7 56.1 40.7 8.7 14.1 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 0.8 7.8 10.6 100.1 64.7 44.0 0.1 2.3 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.9 10.0 82.6 56.8 43.6 1.0 4.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 5.1 14.8 10.6 81.7 59.8 38.2 4.5 11.1 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.7 15.3 15.8 81.4 53.3 42.8 7.7 14.3 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.2 11.3 11.7 86.6 60.0 41.1 6.6 10.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.5 13.1 16.0 85.7 53.2 44.1 8.2 11.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.9 10.5 11.5 83.7 59.9 41.6 6.7 9.2 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 5.2 13.3 11.5 84.3 60.7 37.6 5.0 8.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.5 15.5 12.2 88.6 59.2 41.6 8.9 13.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 12.3 25.4 14.3 86.8 57.7 43.0 9.8 19.9 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.3 12.5 12.8 84.4 57.0 40.7 7.1 10.1 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.1 8.6 9.2 85.9 60.8 46.5 0.4 3.1 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.3 14.1 12.3 77.0 54.2 39.7 6.0 12.0 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 7.8 11.0 91.2 60.8 44.5 1.9 4.5 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.7 16.4 16.1 81.5 53.1 43.0 12.6 15.4 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 7.9 16.8 11.5 81.3 57.4 40.9 8.9 14.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------