***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.5 16.5 12.4 77.8 53.2 42.0 4.2 15.3 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.3 18.3 11.4 86.2 58.0 41.3 2.9 17.3 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.3 16.6 13.0 82.2 53.7 42.2 7.7 13.2 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.6 13.9 14.0 96.1 60.1 44.8 2.7 6.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.9 10.4 12.5 83.0 55.5 42.6 1.5 9.4 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.4 16.8 16.3 97.3 61.0 46.1 3.4 9.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 5.2 16.8 11.7 87.8 57.6 42.5 1.7 12.3 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.0 18.9 14.9 89.8 57.3 44.4 2.9 7.6 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.5 10.8 13.2 80.3 53.0 41.8 5.0 10.6 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.0 11.0 15.4 83.1 53.0 42.5 4.4 9.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.4 11.1 79.9 54.5 41.5 2.1 9.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.0 12.0 12.5 89.7 58.7 43.7 1.1 7.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.1 16.0 15.3 102.2 62.1 47.2 1.7 7.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.9 18.2 15.3 74.5 49.2 40.1 7.3 18.3 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.8 9.5 11.2 92.9 62.3 43.7 1.0 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.2 11.9 13.4 93.7 61.4 44.4 2.0 7.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 6.0 18.1 10.8 86.7 56.4 42.6 4.9 14.8 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.6 13.2 18.3 87.4 54.4 43.9 1.6 10.6 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 15.0 11.6 84.8 56.9 41.0 3.8 11.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 15.7 19.1 100.1 61.5 49.9 5.2 12.1 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 4.4 16.2 12.8 79.7 55.0 41.0 7.4 12.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.5 10.4 78.6 52.5 41.7 6.3 11.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 6.1 14.0 12.3 83.4 54.7 41.1 8.1 13.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 7.3 21.6 15.7 82.1 53.5 41.6 5.4 19.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.7 16.3 13.9 84.5 54.9 41.9 6.6 10.8 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.5 20.2 13.0 105.2 65.7 50.6 2.9 10.1 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.0 14.1 13.1 78.6 52.2 42.2 6.1 13.5 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.7 11.6 13.7 99.3 63.7 45.2 1.9 5.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.0 16.9 18.7 89.9 56.5 45.6 7.1 14.1 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 5.0 10.2 11.9 84.5 55.1 42.4 4.6 9.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------