***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.8 22.1 21.4 119.8 69.7 56.3 5.1 18.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 21.0 36.1 21.4 134.8 72.0 58.6 6.8 16.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 33.3 41.3 25.4 150.8 77.2 64.7 7.6 20.5 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 34.4 44.2 25.7 152.1 79.9 61.2 9.8 23.4 32.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 25.8 31.9 25.8 150.4 79.2 63.7 6.2 16.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 19.7 23.5 28.1 142.6 75.8 64.3 6.3 11.1 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.4 23.6 21.2 130.4 69.5 58.7 6.5 11.7 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 27.1 31.8 26.6 149.0 77.2 64.7 10.9 17.0 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 31.5 44.4 26.5 153.8 81.8 64.3 10.5 15.3 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 36.8 46.6 29.1 158.0 81.3 65.5 10.0 23.0 33.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 19.7 23.6 26.6 147.5 79.3 63.1 9.0 13.0 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 19.2 22.9 23.2 135.3 73.4 62.2 4.7 8.8 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 18.6 23.2 26.4 145.5 76.9 66.0 7.9 11.4 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 35.2 42.6 30.5 154.8 78.1 66.0 12.0 22.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 27.6 24.5 151.2 80.5 58.3 2.7 8.3 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 20.2 25.1 24.2 140.8 76.6 62.7 3.4 9.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.9 23.2 21.8 134.7 70.5 57.4 4.8 9.0 22.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 32.0 43.1 31.2 149.2 77.9 64.6 6.3 15.3 31.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.5 37.8 22.1 140.3 74.1 60.1 12.6 20.7 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 32.8 37.8 29.7 140.5 75.8 65.7 5.9 17.9 35.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 24.3 32.4 25.5 148.1 78.5 62.0 8.2 12.4 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.0 25.1 21.2 133.3 71.2 57.6 4.6 17.0 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 20.6 36.5 24.1 150.0 77.4 63.7 4.6 16.5 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 38.2 47.5 30.0 156.5 80.3 66.1 11.5 25.3 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 32.1 43.1 27.3 137.1 76.1 61.9 6.8 12.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 22.8 31.4 26.4 146.2 79.5 69.1 5.1 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.2 27.7 25.1 124.8 71.0 58.4 8.0 16.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 26.8 36.9 24.4 152.7 80.1 60.1 6.6 14.9 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 37.2 44.4 32.9 148.3 78.6 66.5 12.5 26.7 36.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 21.4 32.3 21.7 134.2 71.6 60.0 6.2 18.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------