***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 22.5 30.6 20.1 136.0 71.8 62.6 8.9 20.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 23.6 26.1 16.2 118.2 67.3 60.8 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 21.0 30.6 17.4 116.9 67.0 59.0 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 32.5 42.5 23.6 147.4 78.2 67.4 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.6 23.3 19.3 124.1 68.7 60.2 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.8 20.3 24.5 124.8 69.2 60.9 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.8 25.1 15.2 109.5 65.0 58.9 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.4 23.1 102.1 60.2 53.8 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 25.6 24.3 22.5 136.0 71.0 65.1 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 16.2 22.0 23.5 111.6 63.2 56.9 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 19.7 22.6 18.8 114.4 66.4 58.6 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.6 19.9 111.5 65.7 57.3 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 15.6 16.6 94.6 57.4 50.7 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 23.7 26.4 21.9 109.5 62.3 56.3 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 20.0 20.8 18.7 144.2 75.5 66.6 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.8 16.2 18.6 114.4 66.6 57.7 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 21.3 28.8 16.4 115.9 69.3 61.0 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 19.4 20.6 24.9 114.1 64.0 57.5 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 20.7 24.6 17.0 121.6 66.9 60.9 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.5 19.5 22.1 95.7 57.8 48.8 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 18.3 30.8 20.8 137.6 71.6 65.0 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 20.1 22.0 14.7 105.8 62.3 57.0 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 19.6 21.2 17.5 117.2 64.1 58.3 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.9 21.0 115.9 65.7 57.8 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 19.3 28.7 19.6 128.1 67.8 61.7 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.2 15.5 15.5 89.2 56.2 50.0 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 19.6 30.5 20.2 129.8 68.1 61.6 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.6 21.4 21.8 136.9 75.5 66.5 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.9 25.0 23.7 109.3 62.2 54.8 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 20.3 24.8 16.0 114.4 64.4 59.5 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------