***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 27.9 29.2 28.3 2.4 89.6 84.9 25.9 26.5 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 27.2 28.2 28.3 2.3 85.2 81.2 26.0 26.4 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 27.5 28.8 28.5 2.4 88.0 83.6 25.8 26.4 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 20.4 21.5 25.3 1.9 88.3 80.7 18.8 19.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 28.0 29.4 26.3 2.1 90.4 83.0 26.1 26.9 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 26.5 27.2 23.3 1.6 86.3 79.9 25.0 25.5 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 27.0 27.8 28.1 2.1 85.3 80.7 25.7 25.9 26.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 15.9 16.2 23.7 1.6 82.7 78.5 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 27.4 28.9 26.9 2.3 90.6 84.4 25.6 26.3 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 27.4 27.9 24.9 1.9 85.6 81.0 25.4 25.9 27.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 28.0 28.7 26.1 2.0 88.6 82.5 25.9 26.5 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 26.8 27.2 25.0 1.8 85.9 80.3 24.9 26.0 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 28.0 28.5 24.9 1.7 85.3 79.6 26.0 26.9 27.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 27.2 27.9 26.2 1.9 84.1 79.8 25.4 26.2 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 28.3 29.9 27.0 2.0 89.6 81.8 26.6 27.3 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 28.5 29.7 25.5 1.9 87.6 81.4 26.5 27.6 28.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 26.8 27.9 28.2 2.4 86.4 82.0 25.5 25.7 26.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 26.6 27.5 24.0 1.7 82.6 78.2 24.9 25.6 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 26.8 27.9 28.5 2.5 87.2 83.1 25.4 25.7 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 22.2 22.2 21.2 1.2 76.2 73.2 20.7 21.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 27.7 28.9 27.8 2.2 89.0 83.5 25.7 26.3 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 27.1 28.5 28.3 2.6 88.0 84.3 25.8 26.3 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 27.4 29.1 28.7 2.8 90.3 85.8 25.8 26.2 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 27.0 27.8 26.3 2.0 85.5 81.2 25.0 25.8 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 27.5 29.2 26.7 2.2 89.0 83.3 25.7 26.4 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 27.4 27.9 24.5 2.0 89.3 83.6 25.8 26.4 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 26.9 28.5 27.4 2.2 87.6 83.3 25.4 26.2 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 28.5 29.9 25.8 1.8 88.2 80.4 26.6 27.5 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 21.7 22.2 22.9 1.4 79.2 75.6 20.2 21.0 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 27.0 27.9 28.3 2.2 85.8 81.6 25.7 26.1 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------