***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 29.4 30.4 28.8 2.1 82.2 69.8 26.8 27.6 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 29.3 29.8 28.7 1.9 78.1 68.1 26.0 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 29.6 30.6 29.1 2.1 81.0 69.3 26.2 27.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 22.2 23.0 26.7 1.9 79.1 68.8 19.1 20.5 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 29.9 31.2 27.1 2.0 80.5 68.7 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 28.1 29.4 24.4 1.7 78.7 66.9 25.1 26.0 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 29.0 29.6 28.6 1.8 76.4 67.7 25.9 27.2 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.6 18.6 25.0 1.7 75.4 65.6 14.6 15.7 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 29.6 31.0 27.4 2.1 81.5 69.3 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 29.1 30.2 25.8 1.9 78.2 66.9 25.4 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 29.3 30.5 26.7 2.0 78.5 68.4 26.0 27.1 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 28.0 29.2 26.3 1.9 77.1 67.4 25.2 26.0 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 29.3 30.5 25.4 1.8 76.8 66.3 26.1 27.4 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 29.0 29.5 26.5 1.6 74.2 65.4 25.9 27.1 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 30.1 31.2 27.9 2.1 82.5 70.4 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 29.9 31.1 26.3 2.0 78.5 68.2 26.6 27.8 29.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 28.6 29.3 28.5 1.9 77.1 68.0 26.0 26.5 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 28.4 29.3 25.0 1.7 74.8 65.1 25.4 25.9 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.8 29.6 28.9 2.1 79.8 69.1 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 23.9 24.3 22.3 1.4 70.1 62.0 20.5 21.9 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 29.4 30.8 28.3 2.1 81.1 69.0 26.0 27.3 28.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.2 30.3 28.5 2.1 79.5 69.5 26.6 27.1 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.3 29.0 2.3 81.0 70.0 26.0 27.5 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 28.8 29.6 26.7 1.9 76.5 66.9 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.7 27.1 2.0 81.9 69.2 26.1 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 29.3 30.4 25.9 2.1 79.8 70.0 26.0 27.2 29.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 28.8 29.6 27.8 2.0 80.5 68.9 25.9 27.1 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 30.0 31.0 27.0 1.9 79.7 68.9 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 23.8 24.0 23.8 1.4 72.0 63.1 20.2 21.8 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 29.3 29.9 28.7 2.0 78.1 68.4 25.7 27.3 28.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------