***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 29.1 30.1 28.5 2.3 80.9 70.5 26.3 27.6 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 28.4 29.5 28.4 2.3 80.3 70.9 25.1 26.5 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 28.6 29.6 28.7 2.3 79.4 70.0 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 22.1 22.0 25.9 1.7 73.7 66.0 18.8 20.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 28.7 29.3 26.4 1.9 74.6 66.4 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 27.6 27.1 23.3 1.3 67.4 62.2 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 28.5 29.5 28.3 2.2 79.5 70.4 24.7 26.4 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.8 24.0 1.4 70.1 62.5 13.9 15.6 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.5 26.7 2.0 75.4 67.3 25.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 27.9 28.5 25.0 1.7 73.0 64.6 25.1 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 28.3 28.9 25.8 1.8 75.4 65.4 25.6 27.1 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 27.5 27.9 25.2 1.5 71.9 63.2 25.0 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.6 28.5 24.3 1.4 67.5 61.9 26.1 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 28.6 28.3 26.1 1.8 74.2 66.1 24.1 27.3 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.2 27.0 1.9 75.9 68.4 26.6 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 29.3 29.5 25.3 1.6 72.5 64.1 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 28.0 29.2 28.4 2.4 81.0 72.0 24.7 26.1 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 27.3 27.7 24.3 1.5 70.6 63.3 24.3 26.0 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 28.0 29.3 28.7 2.4 81.0 71.6 24.2 26.2 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.7 21.3 1.1 63.5 58.9 20.2 21.9 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 28.5 29.0 27.7 2.1 76.1 67.9 25.4 26.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 28.3 29.8 28.4 2.6 82.9 73.1 24.5 26.2 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 28.4 29.6 28.7 2.6 82.1 72.1 24.4 27.2 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 28.0 28.2 26.2 1.9 75.2 66.6 24.3 26.8 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 28.9 29.4 26.6 2.1 76.7 68.5 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.9 24.7 1.7 72.0 65.1 24.8 26.7 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 28.2 29.2 27.4 2.1 79.0 69.4 24.9 26.5 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 29.6 30.2 26.1 1.6 72.6 65.6 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.8 23.1 1.3 67.1 61.2 19.1 21.8 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 28.4 29.5 28.4 2.2 79.9 70.2 24.7 26.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------