***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 27.7 30.3 28.6 3.8 87.2 84.9 23.8 25.9 27.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 27.7 28.1 28.6 3.4 81.7 80.4 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 28.0 28.8 28.7 3.8 85.5 83.8 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 20.5 21.5 24.6 3.2 85.5 81.7 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 28.1 29.9 26.5 3.6 87.5 84.0 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 26.7 28.5 23.2 3.1 86.5 82.9 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 27.2 27.9 28.3 3.2 80.7 79.3 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 15.8 17.5 23.4 2.9 83.2 80.1 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 27.6 29.4 27.7 3.8 88.7 85.5 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 27.6 29.2 25.1 3.4 86.2 82.4 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 27.8 29.9 26.7 3.5 87.3 83.5 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 26.9 28.0 24.7 3.2 85.3 82.5 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 28.0 29.6 25.7 3.3 87.5 84.2 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 27.7 28.6 27.0 3.4 84.9 81.3 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 28.3 30.1 27.1 3.0 85.7 81.1 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 28.2 30.1 25.8 3.4 86.9 83.8 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 27.3 28.1 28.4 3.5 82.4 81.3 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 27.3 28.0 23.9 3.0 82.4 79.9 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 27.2 28.2 28.9 3.8 85.1 83.1 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 22.0 22.3 21.2 2.5 77.7 76.5 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 27.9 29.4 28.4 3.7 87.3 84.3 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 28.1 28.8 28.7 3.9 85.4 84.4 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 27.6 30.1 29.3 4.5 90.0 87.2 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 27.2 27.9 26.9 3.5 84.6 82.2 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 27.8 29.0 27.1 3.5 86.1 83.1 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 27.5 29.2 24.1 3.5 89.0 85.9 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 27.4 28.2 27.6 3.4 84.4 82.3 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 28.2 29.5 25.5 3.1 85.7 81.6 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 22.1 22.7 22.9 2.7 80.3 78.0 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 27.7 28.0 28.6 3.4 81.7 81.1 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------