***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 15.2 16.2 18.0 2.0 94.0 90.1 14.1 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 15.1 16.5 17.8 1.9 91.1 86.9 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 16.9 18.1 18.1 2.0 95.0 90.0 15.8 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 12.3 12.9 15.1 1.6 90.9 86.8 10.6 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 13.8 14.3 15.5 1.8 94.7 90.5 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 12.6 13.5 12.9 1.5 94.4 89.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 15.0 16.2 17.8 1.8 89.5 86.3 14.2 14.6 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 7.6 8.0 12.5 1.3 87.4 83.2 6.6 6.8 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 14.7 15.7 15.8 1.8 96.5 91.9 13.7 14.2 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 14.6 15.2 13.7 1.4 90.2 86.0 13.8 13.9 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 14.6 15.4 14.8 1.6 93.4 89.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 12.6 13.0 13.5 1.4 89.7 85.3 11.4 12.0 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 14.1 14.7 13.4 1.5 94.9 88.8 13.0 13.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 15.1 16.4 15.5 1.7 92.9 88.3 14.3 14.7 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 15.9 17.1 16.6 1.7 93.7 89.5 14.4 15.1 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 14.9 16.2 14.2 1.6 94.1 88.7 13.8 14.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 15.5 16.6 17.6 1.8 89.9 86.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 13.3 14.2 12.9 1.4 90.1 85.7 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 14.9 16.1 17.9 2.0 93.2 88.9 13.9 14.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 9.1 9.3 10.5 1.1 87.1 82.3 8.0 8.6 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 14.9 15.6 17.1 1.9 95.5 91.0 13.7 14.0 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 14.5 15.7 17.7 2.0 92.0 88.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 14.5 15.8 17.9 2.2 95.9 91.8 13.3 13.9 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 14.8 16.1 15.3 1.7 93.5 89.3 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 14.8 15.3 16.5 1.8 91.5 88.5 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 13.5 14.5 13.0 1.6 95.6 91.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 14.8 15.4 17.2 1.9 92.7 89.1 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 14.0 14.5 15.4 1.6 92.1 87.9 12.6 13.3 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 11.7 12.4 12.1 1.3 88.1 84.0 10.5 11.0 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 15.2 16.7 18.0 1.9 90.9 87.5 14.3 14.6 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------