***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 15.7 15.9 17.9 1.3 77.8 69.3 14.2 15.3 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.7 17.8 1.2 75.6 66.2 13.5 14.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 17.6 18.0 18.2 1.4 78.9 70.0 15.6 16.6 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 13.1 13.8 15.3 1.1 73.0 66.4 10.7 11.4 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.5 15.4 1.2 74.4 67.7 12.4 13.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.2 13.3 1.1 73.9 67.4 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.8 17.9 1.2 75.8 66.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 8.9 9.2 12.8 0.8 68.0 63.7 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 15.5 15.5 15.6 1.2 75.0 68.6 13.7 14.8 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.3 13.8 0.9 69.7 65.4 13.7 14.7 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.4 14.7 1.1 71.9 67.1 13.3 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 13.6 13.6 13.6 0.9 69.8 64.7 11.2 12.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 14.8 14.9 13.2 0.9 68.8 64.5 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.1 15.3 0.9 70.7 64.1 14.4 15.1 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.5 16.9 16.7 1.2 77.1 68.3 15.2 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.2 14.2 1.1 71.0 66.9 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.2 17.6 1.1 73.9 64.9 14.3 15.3 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.0 12.9 0.8 67.4 63.9 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.7 17.9 1.3 77.6 67.6 13.9 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 10.3 9.8 10.5 0.6 64.9 61.4 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.5 17.0 1.2 76.0 68.7 13.6 14.7 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.5 17.5 1.2 76.5 66.5 13.3 14.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 15.1 15.6 17.9 1.4 79.5 69.9 13.4 13.9 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 15.7 15.8 15.2 1.0 71.7 66.2 14.1 14.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.3 15.5 16.3 1.1 75.4 66.9 13.6 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.8 13.1 1.1 72.8 67.4 12.7 13.3 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.8 17.0 1.2 76.7 67.8 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.5 15.6 1.1 73.5 67.0 12.7 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.8 12.2 0.7 66.2 62.6 10.6 11.5 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.2 18.0 1.3 76.7 67.8 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------