***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 15.2 15.7 17.8 1.6 80.1 71.5 14.1 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 16.3 17.7 1.5 81.4 71.0 13.5 14.4 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 17.2 17.8 18.0 1.5 80.8 72.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.8 15.0 1.2 76.2 69.9 10.2 11.8 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 13.7 14.2 15.1 1.3 77.4 71.0 12.1 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.7 12.8 12.8 1.0 71.5 68.0 11.6 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.5 16.0 17.8 1.6 81.1 71.8 13.8 14.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 8.1 7.9 12.5 0.9 71.3 65.9 6.0 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.7 15.4 1.3 78.3 71.8 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 14.9 15.3 13.6 1.1 74.5 68.2 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 14.8 15.3 14.4 1.2 76.7 69.4 13.4 13.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 12.6 13.1 13.3 1.0 71.7 67.1 11.1 11.7 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.3 12.9 0.9 69.8 66.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 15.5 16.1 15.2 1.2 76.6 68.7 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 16.1 16.4 16.4 1.3 75.6 71.1 14.2 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.4 13.8 1.1 73.9 68.9 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.8 17.7 1.6 83.0 71.4 14.1 15.0 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.9 12.7 1.0 74.1 68.2 11.5 12.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.3 16.2 17.8 1.6 82.8 72.0 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 9.1 9.3 10.3 0.8 66.7 64.1 7.7 8.1 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.2 16.8 1.4 78.7 71.7 13.3 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.1 16.1 17.5 1.7 85.6 72.5 13.1 13.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 14.6 15.4 17.6 1.7 83.9 73.8 12.6 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.7 15.1 1.3 78.2 70.7 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 14.5 15.4 16.2 1.4 79.0 70.8 13.0 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.8 12.7 1.1 72.6 68.8 12.4 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 14.6 15.4 17.0 1.5 79.8 71.0 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.0 15.3 1.1 74.0 69.1 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.2 12.0 0.9 71.5 67.0 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.5 16.2 17.9 1.5 80.8 71.2 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------