***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 14.9 17.4 18.5 3.7 97.5 93.5 13.4 14.3 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 15.4 17.4 18.1 3.4 93.9 90.4 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 16.5 19.9 18.6 3.7 97.3 94.1 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 12.1 15.3 15.4 3.2 95.5 92.2 9.3 10.8 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 13.4 15.0 16.5 3.6 99.6 95.7 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 12.5 13.6 13.0 3.1 99.9 97.2 10.8 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 15.3 16.4 18.1 3.3 92.3 89.1 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 7.3 8.9 12.4 2.4 92.3 90.8 5.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 14.3 16.3 16.6 3.6 99.9 97.0 12.3 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 13.8 16.0 13.9 2.8 94.7 92.7 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 14.0 15.4 15.4 3.1 97.7 95.2 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 12.4 13.1 13.7 2.7 94.5 92.3 10.6 11.5 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 13.9 15.3 14.3 3.1 99.3 97.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 14.8 18.1 16.0 3.4 98.8 96.2 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 15.3 17.2 17.0 3.2 99.8 95.5 13.7 14.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 14.6 16.3 14.9 3.1 98.4 95.8 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 15.5 16.4 17.9 3.3 91.9 89.7 13.8 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 13.3 14.9 13.3 2.8 97.4 94.2 11.2 12.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 14.9 17.4 18.4 3.7 96.4 92.6 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 8.9 9.8 11.0 2.5 94.4 92.0 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 14.6 16.3 17.7 3.6 99.4 95.8 12.4 13.5 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 14.5 17.2 18.3 3.7 96.2 92.6 12.7 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 14.8 17.9 18.6 4.1 99.3 95.9 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 14.3 17.3 16.0 3.4 99.4 96.2 12.7 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 14.7 16.9 17.3 3.5 96.7 93.0 12.8 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 13.0 14.5 13.5 3.4 99.5 97.5 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 14.9 17.6 17.9 3.6 97.1 93.0 12.6 13.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 13.4 14.6 15.8 3.2 97.3 94.2 11.8 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 11.4 13.7 12.3 2.6 94.5 92.4 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 15.5 17.4 18.4 3.5 94.8 90.9 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------