***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 73.1 69.5 69.1 104.9 59.1 52.3 58.1 67.2 89.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 79.6 87.1 61.8 105.2 61.7 54.4 56.0 74.3 89.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 94.9 100.0 69.2 106.1 60.3 53.9 69.9 87.7 108.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 81.5 93.7 80.2 125.3 67.7 62.7 58.4 72.2 89.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 73.5 81.2 75.5 119.7 65.8 58.6 53.3 65.3 81.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 62.1 73.7 89.3 120.2 69.6 60.2 43.9 56.9 70.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 49.3 72.3 59.6 100.7 59.4 51.6 55.5 66.8 78.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 98.0 96.3 84.7 111.8 63.5 56.4 71.1 85.9 104.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 76.1 88.0 80.8 119.5 68.5 59.1 54.7 69.2 85.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 84.8 96.7 90.4 114.7 65.8 57.9 62.3 74.2 96.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 71.2 78.1 69.6 112.4 63.5 55.9 51.1 64.7 80.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 62.0 67.5 68.8 111.1 63.1 55.5 41.7 56.7 68.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 64.3 72.5 72.5 113.1 65.7 54.5 39.4 55.8 72.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 76.8 109.6 93.2 110.9 64.1 56.3 78.7 102.1 113.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 71.1 77.6 73.9 134.2 72.8 66.2 30.2 56.5 71.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 54.8 61.3 70.2 115.7 65.5 57.0 30.3 48.8 61.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 78.5 83.5 62.1 107.8 63.3 55.9 50.7 73.0 86.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 96.7 95.5 100.8 117.0 68.6 60.0 63.3 72.5 91.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 84.5 85.6 65.0 108.4 63.4 55.4 67.0 75.3 87.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 72.1 83.4 93.0 110.6 62.9 57.4 59.0 65.9 84.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 75.8 84.1 75.1 113.7 63.1 56.5 56.8 69.8 87.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 76.8 80.7 65.5 109.7 64.7 56.4 59.8 73.4 82.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 59.0 89.5 71.0 113.1 66.2 56.6 59.0 72.6 89.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 98.7 129.2 91.4 117.8 69.8 59.5 78.3 85.4 126.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 78.7 77.4 76.7 110.2 60.9 55.1 55.7 71.7 80.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 59.8 74.2 64.7 115.2 66.8 56.6 43.1 54.4 74.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 90.5 102.1 75.6 108.4 62.0 54.6 55.2 85.6 104.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 54.0 64.9 78.4 127.8 69.6 64.4 42.3 50.2 63.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 107.9 113.3 98.9 112.7 65.1 58.2 84.8 97.7 116.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 85.4 85.7 62.8 103.5 59.4 52.7 71.8 79.8 88.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------