***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 9.8 14.3 95.4 58.7 47.1 5.2 8.5 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.6 15.3 10.3 77.0 54.0 44.0 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.1 14.6 13.2 89.8 57.1 46.6 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.3 12.8 91.6 63.3 45.6 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.5 12.9 12.5 86.7 59.8 45.7 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.2 14.4 86.2 58.3 46.4 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.1 10.1 10.5 77.5 56.6 44.0 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.5 17.2 13.0 76.4 50.8 43.1 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.7 13.7 85.9 56.8 45.7 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.2 12.6 14.6 78.4 51.5 43.2 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.0 10.5 78.0 54.8 43.9 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.5 10.3 76.9 54.7 43.9 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.2 11.1 78.4 58.8 45.0 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.7 19.2 16.6 83.1 53.5 45.2 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 0.9 11.1 10.8 93.0 66.5 44.4 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.5 10.8 79.8 59.7 44.7 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.4 10.3 77.7 55.2 43.7 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 12.4 16.5 79.3 49.9 44.1 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.5 10.8 10.8 78.9 53.1 44.0 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.7 11.0 15.2 78.4 47.1 44.0 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.6 10.9 13.4 89.3 61.1 46.9 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.2 8.5 10.7 75.8 53.7 43.2 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 8.4 13.2 11.3 78.7 52.2 43.1 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 12.4 19.6 15.1 82.3 53.8 45.0 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.0 12.6 14.3 92.5 61.0 45.7 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.9 9.1 79.0 59.0 46.0 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.0 14.0 14.9 96.1 60.1 46.6 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.8 8.4 12.0 89.4 64.6 44.8 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.5 15.9 16.4 78.4 49.3 43.8 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.4 16.4 11.2 80.2 55.1 45.0 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------