***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.6 22.6 18.0 111.0 66.6 50.5 7.1 11.0 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 17.8 15.1 103.8 61.0 47.7 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.4 25.6 18.6 115.8 67.2 50.7 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.7 34.2 16.3 120.2 71.1 52.6 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.0 26.0 16.4 125.8 71.8 51.3 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 7.5 23.8 17.3 109.0 64.3 48.2 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.9 13.3 13.8 92.6 57.9 45.4 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 24.4 33.4 18.4 121.9 69.5 51.3 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.1 26.2 18.8 129.3 74.4 53.4 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.7 35.9 20.3 122.5 70.5 50.9 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.0 25.6 14.0 120.6 68.0 48.1 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.3 21.9 14.9 127.7 70.6 52.2 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.7 25.0 16.1 126.4 71.7 53.1 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.6 32.2 24.3 115.5 65.3 50.9 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 16.4 13.2 112.6 70.5 51.3 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.5 25.3 14.8 124.8 71.7 51.5 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.7 17.7 14.0 97.7 60.4 46.1 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 31.4 24.8 129.6 71.9 54.7 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.7 19.7 16.1 108.5 64.3 48.2 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 23.3 21.5 120.1 68.0 53.6 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.9 26.5 18.4 122.3 71.8 52.1 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.5 14.7 15.5 101.8 62.3 46.7 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.5 16.8 17.5 113.0 66.3 48.6 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.7 42.0 23.8 129.4 72.8 54.0 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.9 17.4 18.7 114.7 69.1 50.8 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.1 24.2 13.6 126.9 70.9 50.0 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.0 25.5 18.2 106.7 65.1 49.7 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 18.6 14.7 116.1 69.6 51.4 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 38.9 24.6 126.2 70.4 54.3 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.6 15.5 102.3 60.2 47.2 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------