***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 18.2 20.6 19.4 120.7 66.4 56.8 7.4 14.7 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.2 29.9 18.9 128.7 72.3 60.9 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 21.3 36.5 19.7 116.3 66.7 56.0 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 30.6 41.5 25.8 158.9 80.6 65.4 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.7 32.9 24.8 150.6 78.7 61.6 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 18.1 22.4 26.4 135.3 73.4 58.4 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.8 22.6 16.5 113.9 66.6 53.8 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.2 27.0 22.6 128.2 70.1 56.7 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.4 32.3 26.5 150.5 77.7 62.5 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.1 34.6 24.2 133.2 71.4 57.4 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.4 21.6 21.7 128.6 70.8 55.5 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.5 19.9 20.6 131.2 71.0 57.4 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.4 21.9 24.5 140.4 72.8 59.8 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.1 32.2 24.7 127.0 69.6 57.5 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 18.0 26.3 23.0 164.6 82.2 62.8 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.1 18.9 22.9 138.0 73.0 58.3 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.9 24.7 18.0 128.4 73.4 58.5 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 19.8 31.7 28.0 141.4 74.4 61.1 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 31.2 39.0 20.5 139.4 74.9 63.1 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.0 27.2 24.3 121.4 67.5 57.5 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.9 25.6 24.2 140.6 74.6 61.2 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 25.6 30.4 19.1 136.3 76.8 58.6 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 18.1 36.1 23.0 149.0 76.6 64.3 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 22.3 36.6 27.7 148.0 76.1 63.6 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.1 22.6 21.4 118.4 67.5 55.7 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.4 17.2 113.9 62.7 49.8 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.4 20.4 115.6 65.8 54.9 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.7 29.7 23.0 150.4 77.9 61.7 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 29.6 40.0 27.0 125.7 69.2 56.7 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.0 27.9 18.0 119.3 67.9 56.6 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------