***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 22.9 25.9 17.4 93.7 56.2 50.7 10.5 18.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.4 25.4 17.5 108.7 61.8 58.0 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.7 21.0 17.7 101.3 58.8 52.4 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 18.9 29.6 25.2 125.4 68.4 65.0 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 20.5 27.0 21.8 113.7 64.5 57.4 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 21.6 23.5 31.2 138.5 75.1 69.3 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 19.5 25.0 18.8 115.5 67.5 61.5 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 28.5 31.9 30.7 116.8 64.4 57.8 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 20.7 23.9 21.9 111.6 62.3 54.0 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.3 24.6 31.3 121.8 67.9 58.8 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 17.3 26.3 23.3 116.5 67.1 58.2 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.7 14.1 23.0 108.9 62.1 56.1 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 15.9 17.1 20.9 105.7 60.1 54.3 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.4 31.6 27.6 116.5 63.6 58.1 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 20.8 24.8 26.9 151.1 77.8 73.0 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.3 21.7 116.4 65.5 58.3 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 19.1 27.2 19.8 123.5 67.5 64.7 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 20.7 26.8 31.5 118.3 66.7 58.9 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 21.3 23.6 17.5 105.1 60.4 55.4 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.9 25.8 32.0 118.3 69.8 60.6 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.2 18.9 19.0 101.7 58.0 51.1 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 31.1 33.1 20.2 123.9 68.7 63.8 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.2 23.4 19.0 109.4 63.0 55.3 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.7 26.9 24.9 111.6 61.8 56.5 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 22.7 25.0 22.3 112.7 62.8 56.2 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.9 19.8 24.7 133.9 72.4 63.6 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 23.4 31.1 22.1 113.9 63.3 57.2 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 18.3 20.5 28.8 142.5 74.6 69.8 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 20.8 29.0 30.8 118.9 69.2 61.3 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 19.7 24.7 18.1 109.9 63.5 58.1 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------