***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 28.5 27.9 27.6 0.8 63.3 59.0 25.6 27.6 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.8 27.4 0.6 61.5 56.8 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 27.3 28.1 27.8 0.8 63.4 58.9 25.3 26.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 21.7 21.2 25.8 1.0 68.0 61.9 19.0 19.9 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.7 28.4 26.0 0.8 62.4 59.2 25.7 27.1 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 27.1 26.4 23.8 1.0 69.0 62.7 24.5 25.5 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.4 27.5 0.7 62.1 58.1 24.8 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.7 24.0 0.5 59.8 56.0 13.5 15.4 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.9 26.2 0.8 63.6 58.7 25.4 26.4 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.7 26.6 24.8 0.7 61.9 57.3 25.3 26.1 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 27.2 28.0 25.8 0.9 64.8 60.2 25.6 26.5 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.7 25.5 0.9 65.7 59.5 24.9 25.8 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 28.3 27.6 24.7 1.0 66.8 60.6 25.7 26.7 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.4 25.4 0.5 58.4 55.1 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.6 27.0 1.3 71.7 65.0 26.1 27.9 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 28.9 28.8 25.5 1.1 68.6 62.5 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.3 27.4 0.8 63.1 58.3 24.8 26.4 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 26.3 26.8 24.1 0.7 61.9 56.6 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.2 27.4 0.6 61.6 56.5 24.6 26.5 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.8 21.3 0.2 54.2 52.3 19.8 21.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 27.2 28.4 27.1 0.8 64.0 58.6 25.4 26.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.7 27.0 0.6 61.9 56.9 25.0 26.6 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.6 27.4 0.7 61.3 56.8 25.0 27.0 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 26.6 27.3 25.7 0.7 62.8 57.1 24.7 26.2 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.2 25.9 0.8 64.5 59.1 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 27.8 27.9 25.3 1.4 73.6 64.8 25.2 26.3 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.6 26.8 0.9 64.6 59.8 24.9 26.6 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.9 26.3 1.2 70.0 63.8 26.3 27.6 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 19.0 21.6 23.0 0.5 59.1 54.8 19.4 21.3 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.6 27.5 0.7 62.0 57.4 25.1 26.9 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------