***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 24.8 26.0 25.4 1.1 64.7 63.5 23.4 24.5 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 25.4 26.4 25.5 0.9 60.0 59.6 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 25.6 26.6 25.4 1.0 60.6 60.5 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 18.2 19.0 21.9 0.9 61.8 61.3 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 26.2 26.7 23.3 0.9 61.5 60.1 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 24.4 24.3 20.3 0.5 52.8 53.1 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 24.9 26.0 25.5 1.0 63.6 62.2 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 13.7 13.8 20.7 0.6 56.2 55.7 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 25.5 26.6 24.4 1.1 64.8 63.1 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 25.3 26.0 22.1 0.8 60.2 59.1 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 25.8 26.0 23.5 0.8 59.7 58.7 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 24.8 24.9 21.9 0.7 58.4 58.3 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 26.0 26.0 22.6 0.6 55.8 56.0 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 25.6 26.6 24.2 1.0 64.4 61.8 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 26.9 27.3 24.6 0.9 64.4 62.5 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 26.5 26.7 22.7 0.8 57.5 57.6 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 24.8 25.5 25.4 1.0 63.3 62.6 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 25.2 25.2 21.1 0.7 57.2 57.3 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 25.1 26.2 25.5 0.9 60.6 59.9 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 20.2 20.1 18.7 0.4 53.8 53.3 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 25.9 26.4 25.2 1.0 63.0 61.6 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 25.6 25.8 25.4 1.0 61.3 61.6 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 25.6 26.5 25.4 1.0 63.6 61.8 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 25.2 25.6 23.8 0.9 59.5 59.3 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 25.5 26.6 24.2 1.1 63.0 63.3 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 25.5 25.4 20.8 0.5 55.1 55.0 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 25.4 26.5 24.9 1.2 64.6 64.2 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 26.8 27.1 22.9 0.8 61.0 59.6 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 19.9 20.1 20.4 0.6 57.3 56.5 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 25.6 26.2 25.5 0.9 61.0 60.1 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------