***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 14.9 15.2 17.1 1.2 79.6 75.6 14.1 14.3 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.1 17.1 1.2 79.4 74.9 13.6 14.2 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 16.5 16.8 17.2 1.1 78.0 73.8 15.7 16.0 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 12.0 12.5 14.8 1.3 83.3 79.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.5 14.7 1.0 78.6 74.5 12.4 13.0 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.5 12.3 0.9 77.8 74.5 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 14.8 15.0 17.2 1.2 79.7 74.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 7.3 7.2 12.0 0.8 70.8 69.8 6.4 6.8 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 14.5 14.7 14.9 0.9 77.4 74.2 13.7 14.0 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.4 13.1 0.8 72.7 71.4 13.7 13.8 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 14.3 14.3 14.1 0.9 76.7 74.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.5 13.0 0.9 75.4 72.8 11.2 11.9 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.9 12.8 0.8 75.1 71.7 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.0 14.7 0.8 72.8 71.1 14.2 14.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.2 16.4 1.4 86.8 83.8 14.4 15.0 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 14.6 14.8 13.6 0.9 78.1 74.6 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 15.2 15.8 17.0 1.3 81.2 76.0 14.5 14.9 15.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.1 12.3 0.8 71.3 70.6 12.2 12.7 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 14.6 14.7 17.1 1.1 78.2 74.7 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 8.8 8.8 10.1 0.7 68.9 68.0 7.9 8.4 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 14.6 14.8 16.2 1.0 77.5 73.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.7 16.9 1.2 77.5 74.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.3 14.5 16.8 1.1 76.8 74.6 13.2 13.7 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.6 14.5 0.8 73.7 71.6 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.6 14.9 15.8 1.1 78.7 74.4 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.3 12.2 0.8 72.3 72.3 12.4 12.8 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.9 16.5 1.1 78.5 74.9 13.2 13.8 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 13.8 14.1 15.1 1.2 83.7 80.2 12.4 13.1 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.3 11.6 0.7 69.4 68.8 10.5 10.8 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 15.0 15.3 17.3 1.2 79.3 74.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------