***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-30.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.1 17.5 0.6 61.1 59.3 13.9 14.9 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.1 17.5 0.7 63.9 60.0 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.1 17.7 0.6 63.6 60.3 15.5 16.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.4 15.2 0.7 61.7 61.4 10.6 11.2 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.1 14.9 0.5 58.5 58.3 12.3 13.7 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.2 12.8 13.2 0.7 63.6 61.8 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.1 17.5 0.6 64.0 59.4 14.0 14.8 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.1 12.7 0.5 59.3 57.3 6.7 7.7 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.9 15.1 0.4 57.0 57.9 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.6 13.5 0.4 57.3 56.8 13.7 14.3 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.8 14.4 0.5 59.1 58.5 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 13.6 0.6 61.2 59.2 11.2 12.7 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.3 13.1 0.4 57.5 57.9 13.2 13.6 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.2 15.1 0.4 58.6 57.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 16.5 16.3 16.7 0.8 65.3 63.3 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.2 14.0 0.6 60.4 59.8 13.7 14.4 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.6 17.3 0.7 65.3 60.3 14.7 15.3 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.5 12.7 0.3 55.2 56.1 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.1 17.5 0.7 64.2 60.4 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 10.4 0.3 56.4 55.1 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.7 16.5 0.5 58.1 58.5 13.3 14.6 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.1 14.5 17.1 0.7 64.6 60.2 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.7 17.3 0.7 63.7 60.3 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 14.8 0.4 57.6 57.6 14.1 14.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.8 16.0 0.5 60.1 58.7 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.8 13.0 0.6 61.4 60.4 12.7 13.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.4 16.7 0.6 62.0 59.5 13.3 14.2 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.3 15.6 0.8 63.8 62.7 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.3 12.0 0.3 54.7 55.0 10.7 11.3 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.3 17.6 0.6 63.1 59.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------