***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2019.-23.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.2 17.5 0.9 70.2 64.0 14.0 14.5 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.0 17.3 0.8 68.2 62.0 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.0 16.7 17.6 0.8 71.1 63.6 15.0 16.3 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.3 15.1 1.0 69.8 65.2 10.3 11.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.8 14.0 14.8 0.7 67.5 62.6 12.0 12.8 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 12.8 12.6 12.9 0.9 69.5 65.6 11.3 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.1 17.3 0.8 68.6 62.1 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.1 12.5 0.8 69.3 63.5 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 15.0 14.8 15.0 0.7 66.4 61.9 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.6 13.4 0.7 67.3 62.4 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.0 14.3 0.8 68.3 63.4 13.0 14.1 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 12.8 12.7 13.4 0.9 70.1 64.7 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.1 12.9 0.7 67.3 63.3 12.8 13.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.4 15.0 0.6 67.2 61.6 13.8 14.4 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.4 16.5 1.0 70.4 66.4 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.1 13.8 0.8 68.2 64.3 13.5 14.4 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.5 17.2 0.9 69.1 62.7 14.0 14.3 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.8 12.6 0.7 67.8 62.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.0 15.0 17.2 0.8 68.7 62.2 13.5 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.2 9.2 10.3 0.6 65.3 61.8 7.7 8.2 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.7 16.5 0.8 68.4 62.9 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.7 16.9 0.8 69.2 62.5 13.0 13.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.3 17.0 0.8 69.2 62.7 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.3 14.7 0.7 68.6 62.7 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.9 14.6 16.0 0.9 70.3 64.4 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.5 13.6 12.8 0.9 70.4 65.6 12.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.7 14.9 16.8 1.0 71.1 64.7 12.6 13.3 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.0 15.4 1.0 69.6 65.8 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 11.9 11.9 11.9 0.6 67.0 61.6 9.8 10.9 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.4 14.9 17.4 0.8 69.2 62.4 13.7 14.6 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------