***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2019.-09.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 14.7 14.7 16.0 1.5 75.6 75.1 13.2 13.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 15.5 15.1 16.1 1.7 75.0 75.2 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.5 15.9 1.3 71.2 70.6 14.6 15.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 11.8 12.2 13.6 1.7 79.9 80.2 9.4 10.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 13.0 13.2 13.8 1.2 72.9 72.5 11.2 12.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 11.6 11.8 10.4 0.7 65.6 64.8 10.3 11.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 15.1 15.1 16.1 1.7 75.9 76.1 12.9 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 5.7 6.0 10.1 0.3 54.7 54.4 5.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 13.9 14.2 13.9 1.1 71.3 69.9 12.2 12.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 13.0 13.2 11.5 0.6 62.4 61.0 12.5 12.8 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 48 52 100 13.5 13.5 12.9 0.8 67.1 65.5 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 11.2 11.3 11.3 0.5 59.1 57.9 10.2 11.1 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 12.6 13.4 11.6 0.5 61.5 61.6 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 14.3 14.3 13.5 1.0 67.5 67.7 13.3 13.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 15.2 15.4 15.5 1.9 87.2 86.2 13.3 13.7 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 48 52 100 13.9 14.0 12.4 0.8 67.0 65.9 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 15.4 15.5 16.1 1.8 78.0 77.6 13.4 14.0 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 49 51 100 12.7 12.6 11.0 0.7 66.2 63.9 10.8 12.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 15.1 15.0 16.0 1.6 74.1 74.0 13.1 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 7.8 7.9 8.8 0.5 60.2 59.1 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 14.2 14.2 14.9 1.0 71.6 69.8 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 14.7 14.9 16.0 1.6 75.2 74.6 12.4 13.3 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 14.9 14.7 15.7 1.5 73.4 73.4 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 47 53 100 13.9 13.7 13.3 0.8 66.7 66.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 14.7 14.7 14.9 1.3 73.6 73.4 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 12.1 12.1 10.3 0.3 58.6 57.9 11.5 12.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 15.4 15.0 15.4 1.4 73.8 73.6 12.6 13.1 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 13.2 13.4 13.9 1.5 79.7 78.4 11.5 12.2 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 10.6 10.7 10.2 0.6 63.7 61.4 9.5 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 15.4 15.4 16.2 1.6 74.7 74.8 13.3 13.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------