***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 70.0 125.7 75.4 63.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 79.4 97.1 70.9 129.8 77.7 64.2 56.0 74.3 89.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 106.5 111.3 71.6 126.1 72.5 63.3 69.9 87.7 108.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 104.0 115.6 77.7 124.3 72.0 63.2 58.4 72.2 89.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 91.3 98.8 79.5 125.5 70.8 63.7 53.3 65.3 81.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 72.7 73.9 94.0 123.5 71.2 63.1 43.9 56.9 70.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 88.7 105.3 73.2 135.9 82.7 66.9 55.5 66.8 78.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 95.3 123.5 81.5 121.4 69.6 62.0 71.1 85.9 104.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 75.2 90.5 80.5 127.6 72.9 63.9 54.7 69.2 85.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 82.8 108.8 88.1 125.6 72.1 63.6 62.3 74.2 96.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 69.2 82.9 70.7 123.7 70.2 62.6 51.1 64.7 80.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 60.5 69.9 67.9 121.8 68.5 62.1 41.7 56.7 68.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 61.1 78.8 79.9 125.0 70.8 63.3 39.4 55.8 72.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 109.6 124.1 81.7 119.5 68.7 61.0 78.7 102.1 113.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 61.1 74.1 63.9 121.0 67.8 60.5 30.2 56.5 71.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 53.3 70.4 76.4 127.3 72.6 64.5 30.3 48.8 61.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 78.7 97.7 67.9 128.6 75.6 62.5 50.7 73.0 86.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 95.9 98.2 98.9 125.7 73.1 64.6 63.3 72.5 91.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 97.8 103.3 70.3 126.8 73.8 62.8 67.0 75.3 87.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 71.2 89.7 98.8 120.6 71.3 63.2 59.0 65.9 84.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 75.6 97.2 70.9 123.3 69.7 61.4 56.8 69.8 87.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 77.1 85.7 67.0 120.7 69.0 59.6 59.8 73.4 82.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 89.6 93.0 71.7 125.7 69.4 62.6 59.0 72.6 89.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 119.1 131.6 85.3 122.7 71.1 62.5 78.3 85.4 126.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 93.0 100.9 84.8 130.6 74.3 66.2 55.7 71.7 80.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 59.3 69.6 63.3 113.5 60.4 57.9 43.1 54.4 74.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 102.2 110.1 83.5 133.4 78.4 67.2 55.2 85.6 104.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 54.3 68.7 72.7 124.7 71.1 63.0 42.3 50.2 63.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 124.4 137.6 97.5 122.8 73.1 64.0 84.8 97.7 116.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 94.3 102.9 72.7 131.2 77.9 65.5 71.8 79.8 88.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------