***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 14.1 114.8 65.4 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.9 22.1 15.3 126.9 73.8 55.0 11.7 14.7 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 15.0 21.3 15.3 117.9 67.9 55.6 8.5 12.8 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 12.1 15.4 114.2 69.0 54.5 5.9 9.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.2 15.3 15.8 110.7 65.9 54.7 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.8 20.0 126.6 71.1 57.1 1.4 4.8 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.1 17.0 15.6 133.8 73.6 56.5 6.6 8.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.2 23.7 16.2 115.4 67.6 55.5 7.2 17.1 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.9 12.5 16.3 108.6 65.8 54.6 3.7 6.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.2 17.8 111.7 64.9 55.0 6.0 12.3 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.4 10.9 13.6 109.8 67.7 54.8 3.6 5.9 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.6 17.1 12.6 118.4 72.6 56.2 2.8 8.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.9 11.2 14.6 122.3 72.9 56.8 3.3 6.9 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.2 23.7 18.9 115.6 66.9 55.6 8.8 16.5 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 15.4 13.1 120.0 71.3 54.7 0.4 2.3 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.2 14.3 117.4 71.7 55.7 1.6 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 16.3 14.4 123.8 72.2 55.0 4.5 10.0 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.8 16.3 21.2 117.8 65.6 56.2 7.8 12.4 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.9 15.1 121.5 72.1 54.2 8.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 20.6 21.1 119.3 66.8 57.4 7.7 11.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.6 14.8 14.7 109.6 66.9 54.2 5.6 9.2 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.4 13.3 108.5 68.6 51.2 6.0 8.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.1 19.6 15.7 119.8 70.8 55.1 8.5 12.4 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.6 24.9 19.0 117.9 67.4 56.1 11.8 18.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.8 16.0 110.2 64.9 54.0 8.6 11.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.6 17.2 11.3 124.1 75.5 57.8 0.9 4.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.9 16.3 16.2 118.3 66.0 55.2 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.6 9.4 14.8 120.5 71.5 55.4 1.4 3.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.3 23.1 21.5 120.8 67.2 57.3 12.7 16.0 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.5 21.9 15.4 126.1 72.0 55.6 11.3 12.7 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------