***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.06.2013.-23.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 136.5 75.4 60.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.6 23.8 17.0 145.3 75.5 59.7 10.1 14.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.9 35.5 16.3 139.3 74.0 61.3 6.6 12.0 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.0 31.3 17.8 125.2 69.3 57.9 2.8 7.5 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.1 25.7 18.0 125.6 70.9 57.7 2.8 9.4 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 22.0 25.4 20.9 113.6 68.7 52.9 4.7 16.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.6 32.6 17.7 147.4 78.3 59.4 8.0 10.0 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.4 31.6 16.6 110.2 66.6 55.0 5.2 16.9 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.0 24.1 17.9 130.8 71.7 57.8 6.5 12.5 20.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 20.3 35.8 19.1 125.3 70.4 57.7 4.8 15.5 33.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.5 27.5 15.9 125.2 73.1 58.0 4.4 13.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.6 20.6 13.4 109.2 68.3 54.6 2.5 9.1 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.4 22.1 16.7 115.2 68.8 54.2 3.8 11.6 20.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 34.0 39.4 20.1 143.2 74.4 62.8 9.6 21.2 32.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.7 24.1 14.5 131.4 75.5 58.8 1.3 3.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 14.4 26.1 16.6 122.6 72.9 56.7 2.6 11.1 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.2 25.7 16.9 152.6 76.8 59.7 6.7 12.4 19.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.2 31.0 21.5 123.3 71.8 58.9 4.6 10.5 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.9 27.6 16.8 144.6 75.8 60.8 5.1 11.8 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.2 20.4 20.1 104.4 65.0 54.7 8.1 16.8 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.4 27.2 15.7 129.4 72.6 58.2 7.0 9.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.5 18.1 16.6 148.8 76.6 60.6 7.6 9.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.6 25.6 17.2 148.3 76.8 63.2 9.4 12.9 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.9 42.5 19.7 136.3 74.0 61.3 9.1 20.1 31.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.8 24.1 19.9 132.2 73.3 58.5 6.1 9.6 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.4 21.8 12.1 97.7 68.7 51.1 2.6 13.3 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 19.7 32.9 20.0 139.8 76.1 60.5 7.8 15.9 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.6 20.3 16.3 127.1 73.0 57.8 1.9 7.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.7 35.2 20.8 115.5 67.5 57.4 7.9 18.3 33.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.3 30.2 16.9 142.7 74.9 60.4 5.6 9.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------