***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2013.-16.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 21.1 186.9 83.0 70.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 28.4 34.5 21.3 178.4 83.1 70.5 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 34.0 49.5 21.3 179.1 82.5 70.5 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 32.4 50.4 25.2 182.3 88.0 73.2 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 27.9 37.4 24.7 172.2 85.4 70.2 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 21.8 23.7 33.3 172.3 77.0 68.6 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 22.5 30.8 21.6 181.1 84.4 70.0 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 27.7 31.5 24.8 156.3 76.1 67.8 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 27.1 38.6 25.0 178.5 84.9 71.8 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 35.8 44.1 26.7 165.8 79.5 69.8 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 23.8 30.2 21.9 167.1 82.3 70.8 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 21.4 24.5 21.0 156.2 77.3 68.2 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 22.3 26.1 26.0 163.0 77.5 68.3 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.9 36.5 25.3 166.1 77.2 66.3 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 20.2 34.2 21.2 186.5 88.4 72.3 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 21.0 25.2 24.7 169.3 80.8 70.4 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 25.4 36.8 21.2 174.1 81.8 68.3 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 30.8 39.8 29.4 157.6 78.6 67.5 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 33.4 41.8 21.3 179.2 82.7 70.3 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 27.5 30.7 28.6 138.2 73.8 63.7 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 24.3 40.0 21.8 185.2 86.2 72.9 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 26.0 32.4 22.0 179.1 84.1 67.5 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 30.3 38.7 21.6 178.1 81.7 69.5 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 32.8 41.0 25.9 165.5 79.6 68.1 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 25.3 41.8 26.1 186.3 85.3 72.6 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 25.6 36.4 22.0 154.6 81.1 65.9 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 28.4 39.8 25.2 190.0 84.5 71.5 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 24.9 35.8 23.8 182.9 87.4 71.7 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 37.3 42.8 28.1 146.7 74.7 65.3 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 32.1 48.8 21.7 183.2 84.6 71.0 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------