***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 18.3 91.5 59.5 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.9 17.3 91.4 59.0 50.4 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.2 21.8 18.7 92.7 59.7 50.4 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 19.8 23.0 19.3 92.1 58.1 50.5 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 21.2 24.6 21.1 103.2 62.2 52.7 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.0 19.8 87.8 58.8 48.2 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.6 18.4 100.4 57.3 53.1 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 28.7 31.8 23.9 108.9 61.8 55.1 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 21.3 22.2 21.3 104.7 59.1 53.6 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.5 14.5 24.4 107.7 59.9 54.0 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.5 21.0 19.3 101.7 63.2 51.6 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.1 14.5 20.9 108.2 62.7 55.2 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 15.3 17.1 22.5 104.8 60.2 54.7 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 13.9 20.9 17.3 76.4 44.3 40.3 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.4 11.2 15.0 77.5 54.4 46.8 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.6 12.1 20.7 105.7 62.6 53.6 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.0 18.0 15.5 86.4 53.2 47.5 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 20.9 19.8 26.8 109.3 58.2 54.4 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.7 22.1 17.1 87.8 57.3 48.6 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 18.8 22.3 29.0 119.8 64.1 59.1 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 19.6 18.5 18.7 93.1 56.0 49.9 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 11.6 21.3 15.1 76.2 48.1 43.5 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 20.5 18.0 17.2 85.1 53.4 45.2 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.2 23.1 20.6 89.4 50.2 46.2 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 23.5 26.1 22.7 106.8 65.5 55.8 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.0 17.8 89.4 57.8 49.9 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.5 31.1 22.1 104.1 63.2 54.5 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.4 14.4 17.8 88.7 58.2 49.9 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.2 23.5 27.1 111.5 60.3 55.7 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.6 22.9 18.7 95.8 61.1 52.2 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------