***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 24.4 -1.9 14.6 19.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 25.1 24.5 24.2 -2.1 12.7 17.3 25.9 26.3 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 24.9 24.4 24.4 -1.9 13.8 19.2 25.7 26.2 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 18.2 17.8 22.7 -1.9 11.0 17.1 18.5 19.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 25.3 24.9 22.7 -2.0 10.9 16.3 26.0 26.8 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 24.2 23.8 20.8 -1.5 16.1 22.6 24.9 25.4 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 24.8 24.2 24.1 -2.1 12.1 16.6 25.6 25.9 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 13.4 12.9 21.0 -1.8 11.3 17.8 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 24.6 24.3 23.1 -2.0 10.6 16.9 25.8 26.1 26.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 84 16 0 100 24.8 24.1 21.7 -2.0 9.8 16.9 25.3 26.0 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 25.0 24.5 22.4 -1.8 12.0 18.1 25.7 26.4 27.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 24.5 24.1 22.1 -1.7 15.4 19.8 24.8 25.8 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 25.6 25.1 21.7 -1.6 16.7 21.1 26.0 26.8 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 24.6 24.3 22.7 -2.1 10.6 16.8 25.5 25.7 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 26.5 26.1 23.9 -1.6 14.8 21.5 26.6 27.2 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 26.0 25.5 22.2 -1.7 14.0 19.7 26.6 27.3 27.7 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 24.6 23.9 23.8 -2.2 13.2 16.1 25.2 25.6 25.9 29 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 24.3 23.0 20.8 -2.0 9.9 16.9 24.9 25.6 26.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 24.4 24.1 24.3 -2.1 13.3 18.2 25.2 25.7 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 19.7 19.2 18.8 -1.9 12.0 17.3 20.6 21.4 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 24.8 24.3 24.0 -2.0 12.0 17.9 25.6 26.3 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 25.0 24.1 23.9 -2.1 13.8 17.7 25.6 25.8 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 24.6 24.2 24.1 -2.0 12.9 18.9 25.7 26.0 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 24.3 23.8 22.6 -2.0 10.4 17.6 25.1 25.6 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 25.2 24.7 22.9 -2.0 12.8 17.0 25.7 26.4 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 25.2 24.9 21.6 -1.6 18.0 21.5 25.8 26.4 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 24.9 24.3 23.5 -2.0 13.8 17.8 25.5 26.2 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 26.3 25.6 23.3 -1.8 13.1 19.8 26.7 27.5 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 19.2 18.4 19.9 -1.9 10.6 17.1 20.2 20.8 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 24.9 24.5 24.4 -2.1 13.1 18.0 25.6 26.0 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------