***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2013.-30.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 25.6 -1.3 35.3 38.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.4 25.3 -1.6 35.0 36.2 26.3 27.0 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.8 26.4 25.6 -1.3 37.0 38.3 25.9 27.1 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 18.4 18.3 24.2 -1.4 32.0 37.3 18.3 19.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 25.9 25.1 23.9 -1.5 30.6 36.7 25.8 27.4 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 24.6 25.1 22.2 -1.0 36.1 39.2 24.8 26.1 27.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.1 25.2 -1.6 34.4 35.7 26.1 26.8 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 13.8 14.1 22.2 -1.4 30.8 36.5 14.2 15.6 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 25.5 25.2 24.2 -1.4 31.0 36.7 25.2 27.3 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 25.1 24.7 22.8 -1.4 30.5 36.4 24.8 26.7 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 25.3 25.0 23.5 -1.3 30.5 37.5 25.2 27.0 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 24.4 24.7 23.4 -1.3 32.3 37.3 24.7 26.0 27.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 25.8 25.7 23.0 -1.2 33.2 37.7 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 25.5 25.3 23.6 -1.5 31.1 35.8 25.5 27.1 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 28.6 26.7 25.2 -1.1 36.0 39.8 26.6 28.0 29.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 26.5 26.2 23.5 -1.2 31.5 37.8 26.2 28.1 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 25.2 25.2 24.9 -1.7 28.5 33.8 25.7 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 24.5 24.2 21.9 -1.4 32.9 36.3 24.2 26.1 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.3 25.7 25.4 -1.5 35.4 37.0 25.7 26.7 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 20.2 20.1 19.9 -1.4 30.4 36.2 20.1 21.7 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 25.5 25.7 25.1 -1.4 33.2 37.3 25.7 27.0 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 25.4 26.3 25.0 -1.5 30.8 35.5 26.3 27.0 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.0 25.2 -1.4 33.9 37.4 25.9 27.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 24.9 25.0 23.6 -1.4 34.7 36.9 24.9 26.2 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 25.9 25.7 24.1 -1.4 32.6 37.4 25.8 27.5 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 25.8 25.8 23.0 -1.2 33.7 37.4 25.8 27.1 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 27.4 25.4 24.7 -1.3 33.8 37.7 25.3 26.8 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.1 26.9 24.7 -1.3 32.4 38.4 26.9 28.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 19.5 19.7 20.9 -1.4 32.1 36.4 19.7 21.5 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 27.6 26.0 25.5 -1.5 37.4 37.1 25.4 27.0 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------